General description
Disruptive models driven by the rapid spread of digital technologies adopted by all players
The period is marked by the massive spread of technologies, in particular blockchain and IoT, in a favourable context with effective cooperation between the various players fostering the interoperability of systems, the strengthening of cybersecurity and the rise of simplified and more energy-efficient technologies. Disruptions to models of consumption, production, financing and distribution have thus accelerated. These disruptions are not only accepted but are actively supported by consumers, who have become more autonomous in their consumption, which they optimise thanks to IoT-related technologies, in the management of their data, which they monetise, and in their ability to create and exchange their own tokens with the broad democratisation of blockchain.
The acceleration of industry 4.0 driven by technology (IoT, blockchain) and massive funding: Europe, the State, private individuals
Manufacturers accelerate their shift to industry 4.0. IoT undergoes massive development and transforms the entire value chain, associated with the development of big data, albeit on a smaller scale. Industrial companies respond more directly to the customer experience, develop mass customisation and make widespread use of "digital twins" (a digital replica of an object, a process, etc.). The greater flexibility of industrial tools requires an adaptation of the human resources mobilised, facilitated by the growth of self-employment and of on-demand contracts, now much better protected by Europe.
This rapid transformation of European industry (large groups as well as SMEs) towards industry 4.0 was made possible initially by the mobilisation of Europe which, by managing to reform its institutions (with majority decision-making), became more effective in industrial policy and in regulating the large digital platforms. Europe thus invests massively in industry on this digital front by setting up calls for projects and tax advantages in order to enable the rapid automation of factories across the whole of Europe.
The French State relayed this European policy by increasing the budget allocated to the digitalisation of regional SMEs and by supporting public-private R&D initiatives. Moreover, blockchain technology makes it possible to democratise access to substantial funds through crowdfunding (ICOs: Initial Coin Offerings), which are no longer reserved for promising start-ups alone but become accessible to SMEs and small industrial firms.
Industry 4.0 geared towards personalised services thanks to collaboration with the new start-ups.
Manufacturers have largely reoriented their activities towards services with the rise of the functional economy, which places use at the centre and makes it possible to meet the expectations of consumers and end customers in terms of immediacy, personalisation of the services provided and quality of the associated maintenance. Industrial groups and SMEs thus develop rental and subscription models by using blockchain technologies, which have spread widely and become democratised. To do so they rely on data exchange platforms, some of which are created by start-ups that have partly replaced the former digital giants. The latter were partially uberized with the deployment of smart contracts. The supply chain, too, is coordinated by new-generation platforms that deploy integration between upstream and downstream - industry and customers - by putting traceability and trust forward through blockchain technology.
Over the decade, manufacturers have thus been able to take advantage of these profound technological disruptions by fostering the emergence of ecosystems of alliances with start-ups innovating in these areas and by supporting their development alongside institutional investors or internet giants.
| Macro-variables | Hypotheses |
| Consumer/citizen expectations and behaviours | Consumers want to consume immediately and effortlessly in order to increase their free time. Manufacturers organise their logistics to satisfy this trend while also stimulating it through technology. Logistics processes built on immediacy threaten the conventional distribution model (hypermarkets, etc.). The access to private data that this model requires could be challenged by consumers. |
| Business models | The functional economy becomes the dominant model. The value generated takes the form of rentals and subscriptions in particular and is produced by a few large companies, able to spot talented individuals. These companies make the maintenance of their assets a crucial element of their business model. Better resource management is therefore carried out, tending towards a stabilisation of growth. |
| European regulation | Better functioning of the EU (majority rather than unanimity voting), which makes its regulation more effective with regard to large digital companies (taxation; recognition of self-employed worker status, etc.). Effective industrial policy with more flexible operation, providing easier access for small and medium-sized industrial firms. The EU continues to lead the way on environmental regulation, with a strengthening of EU-wide regulations and fewer directives. |
| Data (AI, big data, IoT) | Companies outsource the exploitation of their data to platforms, whose power increases. Strong growth in the big data and IoT markets. All technologies develop readily thanks to the emergence of energy-efficient infrastructures and effective cooperation between the various players, which fosters the interoperability of systems and the strengthening of cybersecurity. IoT is deployed massively in industry while big data still comes up against certain obstacles. |
| Interactions (blockchain, bots) | BC and smart contracts are deployed massively thanks to simplified and more energy-efficient technology. A movement of "tokenization" of the economy and substantial fundraising through ICOs. Traditional players attempt to catch up and the majority of C to C platforms are uberized. Second-generation bots spread massively. |
| Digitalisation players (internet giants, digital platforms, start-ups) | New platforms offer new business models for industry. These start-ups are financed by institutional investors, internet giants, incubators and investment platforms. Investors themselves create new models by detecting opportunities and looking for players able to develop them (start-up studios). The innovation dynamic rests on a mix of large companies and the start-up ecosystem. |
| Upstream/downstream | The supply chain is coordinated by one or more dominant players (platforms), with a trend towards integration between upstream and downstream. The logistics dimension continues to be optimised through the use of technology, with a heightened traceability challenge. The digitalisation of retail intensifies, but physical objects are all the more numerous as the service becomes digital. Multimodal distribution grows stronger, with ecological considerations. But optimising the supply chain takes precedence over the ecological objective. |
| Economic and financial situation | Investment in industry comes increasingly from private individuals, via platforms and fintechs. Market uncertainty is heightened by the multiplicity of transactions originating from private individuals. Industries have access to more sources of financing and are accelerating their digitalisation. |
| Policies supporting digital transformation | The State develops a communication strategy aimed at raising awareness of digital transformation among all companies. Public authorities increase the budget allocated to the regions and to SMEs on digitalisation matters. The number of R&D initiatives combining public and private funds increases and universities develop centres of expertise on digital matters. |
| Production methods | Production methods here are geared towards demand, based on adaptation. Human resources are regarded as "consumables", with companies having adopted very high production flexibility and a less strict working framework. Contracts are set up on demand. The majority of individuals are self-employed entrepreneurs who must regularly look for new contracts. |
| Manufacturers and European policies | Europe is investing massively in industry, particularly in its digital dimension (calls for projects, tax advantages, human resources). Production plants are increasing their level of automation. This massive investment leads to a withdrawal of public authorities from the other dimensions of public services. |
| Occupations and training | A strengthening of the regional dimension, which facilitates access to skills close to companies. People develop skills that serve their local labour market thanks to an income smoothed across the year. Training organisations incorporate technological opportunities in order to meet companies' needs for flexibility and learners' expectations regarding personalisation. A reindustrialisation movement is organised around small production runs. |