Our methodology

The objectives of the approach

1 • Anticipating with method and rigour

The approach used follows the tradition of the French school of foresight and the recent trend of open foresight.  The method, extensively tested in different settings, is based on active collaboration between researchers and practitioners in workshops, combined with substantial desk research and the mobilisation of external expertise (foresight methodology, facilitation, topics covered).

2 • Anticipating in order to prepare for the changes ahead

Identifying the expected changes, major trends, disruptions and seeds of change for which stakeholders must prepare in order to limit their negative effects and to benefit from their potentially favourable ones.

3 • Anticipating in order to act

Anticipating by setting up collective multi-stakeholder reflection that enables genuine shared co-construction of visions of the future, from which new paths will emerge that better address present and future challenges.

The framework of the approach

Multi-stakeholder reflection based on a rigorous approach mobilising 

• The main agents of change: large companies, SMEs, mid-caps, start-ups and institutional stakeholders, to co-construct the reflection.
• A multidisciplinary team of teaching researchers from EM Strasbourg to carry out the horizon-scanning work and disseminate the results of the reflection (technical committee).

The main stages and deliverables 

The approach is broadly based on 3 stages, through 5 workshops (four and a half days) bringing together all the members of the working group, and back-office work carried out by the technical committee:

Stage 1: Building the foresight information base to construct an overall vision of the system under study

This first stage consists in designing a picture of the system under study from which the foresight study develops. This picture is comprehensive (taking into account all dimensions of the system, both qualitative and quantitative) and explains the mechanisms of change (highlighting past trends and developments that carry the future). It was carried out in 3 phases:  

• Running a foresight workshop to identify and prioritise the key factors of change (technological, economic, social and organisational, whether anticipated, desired or feared).
• Creating the foresight system which comprises all the macro-variables of the system that influence the subject under study or are influenced by it. A macro-variable brings together several variables and constitutes a structuring element for the future of the system. The macro-variables are identified from the results of the first workshop (key factors of change), from horizon-scanning work and from comparison with other foresight systems on related subjects
• Compiling the foresight files which describe, for each macro-variable: past trends, dynamics under way and the exploration of possible futures (seeds of change, uncertainties, major trends, possible disruptions). These files provide a credible basis for developing scenarios. They are built by the technical committee through substantial horizon-scanning work supplemented by interviews with experts.

Stage 2: Foresight exploration: projecting the system into the future in the form of hypotheses and scenarios

Working from the foresight files, hypotheses on how the macro-variables might evolve are built collectively in workshops, distinguishing between  trend-based hypotheses, contrasting hypotheses and disruptive hypotheses.
The various scenarios are then built collectively by the members of the working group. A scenario amounts to choosing a combination of hypotheses for all the macro-variables and turning it into a coherent narrative that takes into account all the dimensions of the system under study. 

Stage 3: Moving to action

The aim here is to inform the actions of the participating practitioners according to the selected scenarios.  For each scenario, the threats / opportunities / challenges / action plans are identified collectively, as well as the cross-cutting actions across the different scenarios that are the most robust whatever the developments identified. Moving to action can also involve supporting companies in implementing actions and setting up a community of practice enabling the collective sharing of the experiences undertaken.