General description
Manufacturers geared towards the functional economy and an industry 4.0 driven by large groups.
By 2030 in France, consumers heighten their expectations of ever more consumption and immediacy, but they turn less towards ownership than towards use. They are increasingly cautious about the management of their data and are reluctant to entrust it to economic players without restriction and control. In this rapidly changing context, most large industrial groups have innovated by disrupting their traditional business models and by turning resolutely towards the functional economy. These developments have further reinforced the trend towards the digitalisation of production and distribution processes. As a corollary, human resources are declining in number.
Thus, most industrial players, large groups as well as SMEs, invested significantly over the 2020-2030 period in digital transformation, in a context of low interest rates. But it is the largest groups - at the expense of most industrial SMEs and of the most fragile groups - which, through concentration at the various territorial levels (regional, national, European), managed to capture the vast majority of the financial resources needed for this digital metamorphosis. The few smaller industrial players that managed to maintain their positions relied on public support, in particular that provided by regions with an ambitious industrial policy, despite the effects of industry 4.0 on direct employment.
The uberization of industry 4.0 on the production side did not happen!
Industrial groups withstood the risks of uberization well during the 2020-2030 decade, and this despite a European context still very favourable to the big tech companies owing to a lack of coordination between the various States and its inability to curb tax avoidance.
Yet in the early 2020s, there was reason to fear the uberization of production with the rise of IoT (the internet of things) and big data. But this did not happen, for multiple reasons: the lack of cooperation between manufacturers and platforms holding back the emergence of standards and the interoperability of systems, the reluctance to share data between economic players, and the regular crises linked to cybersecurity. All in all, industry 4.0 limited IoT to internal use and big data remained focused on restricted internal data without opening up to the digital pure players.
A partial uberization of traditional distribution and the emergence of new platform models
It was in fact the uberization of traditional distribution that accelerated throughout the decade. The supply chain is now coordinated by large platform operators (industrial groups and pure players) that enable the optimisation of logistics. SMEs and small industrial firms do not hold this coordinating position but contribute to securing and tracing the supply chain by investing in new technologies, in particular blockchain. This rapid decline of traditional distribution was accelerated, particularly in BtoC, by the growing use of blockchain and smart contracts, which industrial SMEs took up extensively.
Alongside the major logistics players, there is a strong innovation dynamic with the creation of numerous platforms by start-ups. These are largely financed by institutional investors, by internet giants, by incubators and by investment platforms. Paradoxically, this uberization of the downstream, largely controlled by pure players, has benefited manufacturers, including some SMEs, which gain faster access to the end customer and better meet their needs in terms of the products and services expected.
| Macro-variables | Hypotheses |
| Consumer / citizen expectations and behaviours | Consumers want to consume immediately and effortlessly in order to increase their free time. Manufacturers organise their logistics to satisfy this trend while also stimulating it through technology. Logistics processes built on immediacy threaten the conventional distribution model (hypermarkets, etc.). The access to private data that this model requires could be challenged by consumers. |
| Business models | The functional economy becomes the dominant model. The value generated takes the form of rentals and subscriptions in particular and is produced by a few large companies, able to spot talented individuals. These companies make the maintenance of their assets a crucial element of their business model. Better resource management is therefore carried out, tending towards a stabilisation of growth. |
| European regulation | The cumbersome nature of the regulatory system limits Europe's bargaining power against the big tech companies (taxation, employment law) and its effectiveness in the industrial and environmental sectors. At industrial level: there is a lack of take-up (knowledge and the long time needed to put together an application) by small and medium-sized industrial firms. On the environment: the EU remains a pioneer but the application of regulations varies greatly according to national will. The same applies to taxation and the GDPR (constraining in France but variable from country to country). |
| Data (AI, big data, IoT) | Companies outsource the exploitation of their data to platforms, whose power increases. Strong growth in the big data and IoT markets. All technologies develop readily thanks to the emergence of energy-efficient infrastructures and effective cooperation between the various players, which fosters the interoperability of systems and the strengthening of cybersecurity. IoT is deployed massively in industry while big data still comes up against certain obstacles. |
| Interactions (blockchain, bots) | BC and smart contracts are deployed massively thanks to simplified and more energy-efficient technology. A movement of "tokenization" of the economy and substantial fundraising through ICOs. Traditional players attempt to catch up and the majority of C to C platforms are uberized. Second-generation bots spread massively. |
| Digitalisation players (internet giants, digital platforms, start-ups) | The convergence between disruptive technologies promoted by internet leaders and manufacturers fosters the creation of new business models. Manufacturers take ownership of these technologies and reconfigure their production processes, becoming players in technological innovation. Sharing of resources and information between manufacturers. |
| Upstream/downstream | The supply chain is coordinated by one or more dominant players (platforms), with a trend towards integration between upstream and downstream. The logistics dimension continues to be optimised through the use of technology, with a heightened traceability challenge. The digitalisation of retail intensifies but physical objects are all the more numerous as the service becomes digital. Multimodal distribution grows stronger, with ecological considerations. But optimising the supply chain takes precedence over the ecological objective. |
| Economic and financial situation | Companies invest massively in digital technology in a context of low interest rates. The leaders on the financial markets absorb industrial groups as elements of diversification for their equity portfolios. The disconnect between production values and financial values continues. Weak but continuous growth in the real economy is maintained, owing to the digitalisation of industry. |
| Policies supporting digital transformation | The State develops a communication strategy aimed at raising awareness of digital transformation among all companies. Public authorities increase the budget allocated to the regions and to SMEs on digitalisation matters. The number of R&D initiatives combining public and private funds increases and universities develop centres of expertise on digital matters. |
| Production methods | Production is geared towards automated, standardised processes in order to produce more and more efficiently. Company jobs are mainly non-human; the few humans still present have tasks relating to the processes and their maintenance. |
| Manufacturers and European policies | Political tensions entail a refocusing of industrial momentum at continental level: Europe, the Americas, Asia. Europe confirms its decline. Rising transport costs entail the relocation of industry. Factories belong to large groups, are digitalised and grouped into competitiveness zones. Manufacturers favour investment in the future, notably through public support. |
| Occupations and training | The need for skills accentuates the segregation of the labour market and new forms of employment create greater insecurity. New training players emerge (platforms) to meet the needs of industry. The flexibility and intelligence of production increase, with an acceleration of transactions and decision-making (the result of automating basic processes, advanced processes and cognitive activities). |