General description
Anxious consumers seeking frugality and local consumption.
By 2030 in France, most consumers have profoundly changed their purchasing behaviour: they have abandoned the race to consume that characterised the first decades of the 2000s, in a context of crisis. The level of consumption declines compared with the 2020s and refocuses on the local, owing to an awareness of the risks weighing on health and the environment. Moreover, with the proliferation of technological disasters and cyberattacks (health, nuclear, blockchain hacking, etc.), their mistrust of the uncontrolled digitalisation of society is very strong.
Industry 4.0 constrained by regional relocation policies centred on employment and financed by precautionary savings.
In a context of geopolitical tensions throughout the decade, trade flows refocus around major economic zones: Europe, the Americas, Asia. The chaos is all the greater on the European continent because political Europe is severely weakened by major institutional crises.
It is therefore States and regions that take over. But policies supporting digital transformation decline in favour of maintaining local jobs and encourage large industrial companies to include the region's SMEs in their development within a circular economy logic, with production geared towards the single unit and the local.
Precautionary savings, which rise sharply during this period of crisis, constitute another source of financing. A significant share is now placed in funds that promote the relocation of the productive activities of small and medium-sized companies for the benefit of employment at local level.
In this context of crisis, large groups and SMEs, drawing on this private financing, direct their digitalisation efforts towards internal production processes - not with a view to standardisation but, on the contrary, in order to develop small production runs within smaller units and thus meet consumers' strong demands in terms of price, quality and proximity. This relocation dynamic has positive effects on the trend in industrial employment, which, after decades of decline in France, sees its direct and induced jobs rise slightly in certain regions.
A continuing weakening of the platform model, which reverses the balance of power in favour of manufacturers
The increase in cybercrime affected companies of all sizes with significant impacts: misappropriation of funds, theft of strategic data and of personal data on a large scale. In this context, manufacturers decide to invest massively in cybersecurity and turn to private clouds shared within chosen ecosystems. They thus manage to reverse the balance of power with the digital platforms that had until then been the main intermediaries.
All in all, in France over the course of the decade, with the downturn in consumption, the strong loss of consumer confidence and consumers' attention to their local environment, the globalised platforms are severely weakened. Hyper-competition develops between them, which tends to weaken their margins and the effectiveness of their business models, causing the regular disappearance of the main players.
Moreover, direct producer-consumer channels develop, allowing better control of costs and prices in this context of declining consumption. Distribution is partly relocated at regional level through crowd-logistics platforms that are better accepted by consumers, and through the maintenance of physical distribution, which is more reassuring in certain segments such as food.
| Macro-variables | Hypotheses |
| Consumer / citizen expectations and behaviours | We are witnessing a drastic fall in consumption: consumption is perceived solely as a means of survival. Frugality becomes the norm. Degrowth becomes widespread and individuals accept a steep decline in their purchasing power, with a standard of living that returns to that of a century ago. Furthermore, the virtual world compensates for physiological and psychological needs. |
| Business models | The economic system has been rethought under duress in a context of energy and environmental crises. The new system gives a greater place to individuals, who have become producers of value that they monetise at company level and/or within channels where mutual aid and physical and digital bartering are key. Companies have in most cases become marketplaces pre-empting the available talent. Resource management applies at local level. The State intervenes only through a universal income. |
| European regulation | Owing to its lack of effectiveness, the EU loses power and regulation is now conceived at global level (OECD). The EU and China/Asia ally against the US in order to push through binding regulations targeting the big tech companies and for the environment. International regulation of the taxation of digital activities is initiated by the OECD and is now applied internationally. The same applies to the GDPR and to the regulation of AI. Environmental policy is strengthened thanks to China's alliance with the EU. |
| Data (AI, big data, IoT) | Technological disasters and the proliferation of cyberattacks lead to a widespread rebellion against platforms and data sharing. Companies use their own clouds and reverse the balance of power with platforms. Security problems and conflicts between players (interoperability issues) lead to weak development of the IoT and big data markets. |
| Interactions (blockchain, bots) | BC technology is called into question following a hack, which causes all related applications (tokens, cryptocurrencies, smart contracts) to lose momentum. This entails a status quo for traditional players and platforms, which see the BC threat fade. Development of customisable bots thanks to advances in AI and quantum computing. |
| Digitalisation players (internet giants, digital platforms, start-ups) | The platform model proves insufficiently profitable, causing the regular disappearance of the main players: invalidation of the Uber model, Chinese-origin platforms (Alibaba, etc.) failing to develop, competition between platforms exerting pressure on margins. |
| Upstream / downstream | Loss of consumer confidence in large multinationals. A return to a more local economy and distribution, co-managed by independent regional players. Digital platforms weaken owing to more direct contact between supplier and consumer. Manufacturers strengthen their positions and develop crowd-logistics across the whole distribution chain (ecological flow management). The share of physical distribution holds up in certain sectors and even grows. |
| Economic and financial situation | A lasting financial crisis is caused by the bursting of financial bubbles (notably on bond debt on government bonds). To cope with this, new economic systems develop independently of states (alternative currencies). Blockchain becomes democratised and cryptocurrencies develop alongside the conventional financial system, which endures. |
| Policies supporting digital transformation | The "negative hype" surrounding the harmful effects of digitalisation is so strong that policies supporting digital transformation are halted in favour of maintaining jobs. The effectiveness of public-private research models is also called into question. Research and innovation programmes no longer support the development of technologies such as robotisation and AI. |
| Production methods | Production methods here are geared towards demand, based on adaptation. Human resources are regarded as "consumables", with companies having adopted very high production flexibility and a less strict working framework. |
| Manufacturers and European policies | In a context of the weakening of the Chinese model (economic war with the US, competition from lower-cost countries, brain drain), Europe reduces its trade with China, refocuses on its neighbouring countries for economic exchange and takes environmental and social dimensions into account in order to develop the circular economy in particular. |
| Occupations and training | The attempt to anticipate skills needs, which are hard to predict, is delegated to external players. Blue-collar workers, by incorporating new technologies, maintain the value of their expertise in production. Work becomes less arduous and makes it easier to stay in or access employment. Traditional training players lose credibility and must transform themselves. Self-employed workers position themselves across the whole value chain according to their contribution and are coordinated by support functions. |