General description
SMEs and industrial groups turning together towards regions and the circular economy in order to meet the needs of more responsible consumers.
By 2030, consumers have profoundly reoriented their behaviours. Less sensitive to price and to immediacy, they increasingly seek proximity, frugality and the consideration of environmental criteria.
Faced with these upheavals, industrial players are transforming their business models by regionalising their activities at local scales within a circular economy logic, which encourages more intensive collaboration between SMEs and large corporations, as well as the development of alternative cooperative and even non-market models.
A decentralised, resource-efficient industry 4.0 supported by massive and varied investment.
These profound changes in demand and in business models are driving a reorientation of fully automated production methods towards small production runs on a local scale, tailored as closely as possible to customers thanks to the development of new technologies (IoT, big data). Considerable importance is given to the optimal management of waste, recycling and energy savings and, beyond that, to the creation of genuine ecosystems enabling the optimisation and regeneration of resource use at regional level. Innovative infrastructures such as Fablabs in particular are shared and play an important role in setting up these new production processes.
This regeneration of production models has been made possible by massive investment in digital technology, which has benefited from the support of the financial markets. This decentralised industry 4.0 is achieving very good results in terms of overall performance, which now incorporates environmental and social indicators, making these very attractive investments.
These developments have above all been made possible by an ambitious European policy that has rebalanced trade relations in favour of the eurozone, which has equipped itself with a proactive strategy in favour of ecology by reallocating a large share of its budgets towards the development of these resource-efficient ecosystems. At national and regional level, support policies are attempting to manage the transition while cushioning its social cost through "stop and go" measures that successively favour technological investment and the preservation of employment.
A chosen uberization for part of the data linked to production processes and a clear retreat of pure players in distribution.
The emergence of these effective forms of cooperation between large industrial groups and small structures at local scales has been made possible by outsourcing the exploitation of massive data relating to production processes to platforms, in a context of strong growth in the big data and IoT markets. It is the rapid and frugal development of blockchain technologies and smart contracts that is fostering data protection and security and facilitating the interoperability of these processes. These new production-process-oriented platforms were mainly initiated by start-ups at the beginning of the decade and financed by all stakeholders: industrial, financial and public.
Moreover, this dynamic of regional relocation, made possible by the rapid digitalisation of industry combined with strong political will and the new expectations of citizen-consumers, has had the effect of weakening the uberization of distribution by the world-leading pure players that were so much in vogue at the start of the decade. Crowd-logistics is taking over, alongside the redevelopment of physical stores that create social ties within regions.
| Macro-variables | Hypotheses |
| Consumer / citizen expectations and behaviours | A growing number of consumers are bringing a responsible attitude and responsible behaviour towards consumption into line with one another. An increasingly widespread awareness of nutrition-related risks and of environmental degradation is changing consumption behaviours: with a sharp increase in the share of local consumption, less transport and, ultimately, less consumption. |
| Business models | At industrial level, urban regional initiatives are multiplying, with large companies creating value through services in a context of public-authority support. Large groups and SMEs operate with a more regional logic, partly in circular autonomy. Alongside these market models, a more cooperative level of direct sharing (gifts, counter-gifts, bartering) is emerging, particularly in rural spheres. |
| European regulation | Better functioning of the EU (majority rather than unanimity voting), which makes its regulation more effective with regard to large digital companies (taxation; recognition of self-employed worker status, etc.). Effective industrial policy with more flexible operation, providing easier access for small and medium-sized industrial firms. The EU continues to lead the way on environmental regulation, with a strengthening of EU-wide regulations and fewer directives. |
| Data (AI, big data, IoT) | A balanced relationship between platforms and traditional companies, which are developing their own data-exploitation tools. Limited growth in the big data and IoT markets owing to the emergence of scandals in certain sectors. The lack of cooperation between manufacturers and platforms is holding back the emergence of standards and the interoperability of systems, and is weakening cybersecurity. This leads to IoT being limited to internal use and to big data focused on restricted data within industry. |
| Interactions (blockchain, bots) | The difficulty of accessing the technology and its heavy energy consumption limit the mass-market deployment of blockchain. Tokens and cryptocurrency are mainly used for speculative purposes. Traditional players and platforms manage to integrate blockchain technology to their advantage. Limited development of bots owing to technical and social constraints. |
| Digitalisation players (internet giants, digital platforms, start-ups) | New platforms offer new business models for industry. These start-ups are financed by institutional investors, internet giants, incubators and investment platforms. Investors themselves create new models by detecting opportunities and looking for players able to develop them (start-up studios). The innovation dynamic rests on a mix of large companies and the start-up ecosystem. |
| Upstream / downstream | Upstream/downstream integration through local and circular distribution. This model facilitates shared coordination between all players. This strengthening of the local level leads to massive disinvestment in technology in order to favour the place of people. Disinvestment in AI and a strengthening of independent (local) physical stores. Distribution is local, using environmentally friendly means of transport. Crowd-logistics is gaining ground. |
| Economic and financial situation | Investment in industry comes increasingly from private individuals, via platforms and fintechs. Market uncertainty is heightened by the multiplicity of transactions originating from private individuals. Industries have access to more sources of financing and are accelerating their digitalisation. |
| Policies supporting digital transformation | National and local policies in favour of digital technology and industry are marked by fits and starts, torn between the desire to encourage investment and corporate performance on the one hand and to preserve jobs on the other. Nevertheless, some local elected representatives are still rolling out ambitious support policies for industry and mobilising researchers on these projects at local level. |
| Production methods | Production methods here are geared more towards single units and the local level. A growing share of goods, services and processes are not standardised and are produced by individuals or by (very) small companies. The latter produce in a more circular and shared way within renewed infrastructures (Fab labs). New sources of employment in repair and recycling are generating positive prospects. |
| Manufacturers and European policies | Europe is investing massively in industry, particularly in its digital dimension (calls for projects, tax advantages, human resources). Production plants are increasing their level of automation. This massive investment leads to a withdrawal of public authorities from the other dimensions of public services. |
| Occupations and training | A strengthening of the regional dimension, which facilitates access to skills close to companies. People develop skills that serve their local labour market thanks to an income smoothed across the year. Training organisations incorporate technological opportunities in order to meet companies' needs for flexibility and learners' expectations regarding personalisation. A reindustrialisation movement is organised around small production runs. |