Hypotheses
Over the course of 2 one-day workshops, all 12 foresight files were presented to the members of the group, who were able to comment on them and add to them. Working from the material in the files, hypotheses on how the macro-variables might evolve were built collectively, distinguishing between:
- Trend-based hypotheses: which relate to dynamics already under way.
- Contrasting hypotheses: which take up uncertainties, controversies and the seeds of change.
- Disruptive hypotheses: which relate to disruptions.
Trend-based hypothesis: Everything-as-a-service within stabilised growth
The dominant business model is that of the functional economy, based on service. The value generated takes the form of rentals and subscriptions in particular.
This value is mainly produced by a few large companies, able to spot talented individuals with specific expertise and to put it to work creating value.
These large companies make the maintenance of their assets a crucial element of their business model. The physical asset has become the company's capital. Better resource management is carried out, leading to a stabilisation of growth.
Society, and particularly Generation Z, adopts this everything-as-a-service model based on sharing very readily. Consumption becomes responsible, based on reusing what already exists and with a longer product service life. Young people do not lay claim to the notion of ownership, which raises questions for the State as to how to approach the notions of assets and inheritance.
Contrasting hypothesis: Local business models
The State is a centralising force and a coordinator of urban regional initiatives, based on the principles of the functional economy but with varying emphases.
Initiatives are taken at industrial level, in a very urban setting, with large companies creating value through services that are heavily taxed and regulated by the State. These companies operate with a regional logic, in partial circular autonomy, collaborating intensively with local players. They maintain their physical assets in order to increase their service life and use value.
To counterbalance the strong presence of the State within this urban logic, a more cooperative and less formal level emerges, more in rural spheres. Value then takes the form of more direct sharing of goods and services through gifts, counter-gifts, bartering, etc. between small companies, but also between individuals. The companies in these rural areas form new emerging platforms. Exchanges also operate on a local scale, in circular autonomy, but the very nature of these exchanges means that they escape regulation and formalisation by the State. The latter intervenes only to ensure that the urbanisation of France does not erase the possibilities that exist in rural areas.
Disruptive hypothesis: Back to basics
The risk of resource shortages had been recognised many times, but companies and society had not sufficiently anticipated its scale. Poor management of natural resources generated an energy crisis that is forcing the economic world to rethink the foundations of the value generated, as well as its architecture and its capture.
The new system is based on individuals who have become producers of value, where mutual aid and physical and digital bartering become the keys to exchange. These exchanges, along with resource management, take place at local level; goods, services and resources are exchanged exclusively nearby. Multiple mutual-aid areas emerge.
Each individual has specific talents and expertise. Few companies are present, but they are substantial in size and take the form of marketplaces pre-empting the available talent.
The State intervenes only through a universal income, to ensure individuals' survival, faced with limited employment and an increased presence of robots within the few large companies still present. The humanisation of robots is under way.