Hypotheses
Over the course of 2 one-day workshops, all 12 foresight files were presented to the members of the group, who were able to comment on them and add to them. Working from the material in the files, hypotheses on how the macro-variables might evolve were built collectively, distinguishing between:
- Trend-based hypotheses: which relate to dynamics already under way.
- Contrasting hypotheses: which take up uncertainties, controversies and the seeds of change.
- Disruptive hypotheses: which relate to disruptions.
Trend-based hypothesis: Digital and multichannel distribution
The current trend of a blurring of the upstream/downstream distinction and of the central position of digital platforms becomes the dominant model. The investment of digital platforms in the upstream part of the chain (e.g. Amazon) is confirmed. Platforms thus become logistics and retail hubs that coordinate the entire supply chain. Supply chain coordination is therefore centralised in the hands of one or more dominant players (large manufacturers or distributors depending on the sector). The traceability-security challenge grows and entails the liability of these dominant players.
SMEs and small industrial firms do not hold this coordinating position. They do, however, contribute to securing and tracing the supply chain through substantial investment in new technologies (e.g. generalised blockchain for traceability). This investment is made more broadly to optimise the supply chain at warehouse level (e.g.), in transport (e.g. drones) and across the whole process (e.g.).
SMEs and small industrial firms also invest more in the digitalisation of retail, in order to have their own sales channel outside digital platforms. They thereby catch up in order to satisfy their buyers' demand and develop a digital service. Thus the "phygital" model becomes standard and dominant. Digital platforms themselves move away from "all-digital" to offer solutions based on a physical store (e.g. Amazon's purchase of Whole Foods). The physical product will never have been as important as with the digitalisation of service.
Finally, distribution players use multiple modes of transport to route a single product, with a combination of direct, subcontracted or crowd-logistics distribution (multichannel model). Technological progress has fostered this model with varied modes of transport, mainly electric out of ecological concern and because of oil prices. Nevertheless, optimising the supply chain within globalised distribution leads to the use of polluting transport and of methods that are sub-optimal for the environment.
Contrasting hypothesis: circularity and shared local coordination
Once again the upstream/downstream distinction disappears, but this time in favour of local circular distribution shared by all players. The circular economy becomes the dominant model; distribution evolves at local level with coordination shared by all the players in the value chain, and thus a greater role for manufacturers in the Est region without their taking control.
This model is accompanied by a loss of confidence in digital technology and AI in favour of the place of people and of interaction in the real economy. Companies therefore reduce or even withdraw their involvement in AI technology in order to strengthen the role of people in supply chain management (warehouses, transport). Likewise, investments in traceability technologies (such as blockchain) have become less significant with local distribution being easier to control. This disinvestment is also seen in the retail side of distribution with a return to physical stores independent of the large multinationals. The return to a local circular economy encourages the proliferation of independent stores and weakens the position of large digital companies and major distribution groups. Phygital remains a possible model, but one may assume that it appears less often owing to the more modest resources of independent players.
Finally, distribution and delivery by ecological means grows stronger to the point of becoming the dominant model. In a local economy (vs. globalisation) there is no longer any need for the multichannel model and the priority is optimising ecological transport. Consequently the crowd-logistics model becomes more important because it enables optimised flow management within an ecological logic (e.g. using individuals' bicycles, their electric cars, etc.). However, this model dominates the "downstream" part of distribution to the end consumer but not yet the "upstream" supply part, where volumes are too large.
Disruptive hypothesis: Individualisation of distribution
The consumer's assumption of power intensifies. While already at the centre of distribution (e.g. as a "consumer-actor" through their choice between different purchasing and delivery methods, their quality satisfaction based on delivery or retail contact), they become an actor in flow management.
The multiple crises linked to the supremacy of large multinationals and of digital technology have led to a loss of confidence and a stronger desire among individuals to be able to act. To this end, they push for a return to a local economy and local distribution that they are able to control. This involves turning away from large multinationals, including digital platforms, and strengthening independent regional players, including manufacturers. Following the short-supply-chain model in food, direct contact between suppliers and consumers becomes the norm.
This phenomenon leads to the (near) disappearance of digital platforms, which are no longer necessary or wanted by consumers. It also entails the disappearance of intermediaries such as wholesalers and logistics service providers, since the transport of raw materials and finished products is now carried out by individuals themselves through crowd-logistics.
The crowd-logistics model has become dominant owing to two factors. First, the localisation of distribution facilitates supply and final distribution by medium-sized means of transport used by households (cars, bicycles, vans, etc.). Second, companies have invested heavily in 3D printing or other technology enabling individualised production that avoids waste. Volumes, from production onwards, are therefore much smaller and make it possible to use resources that already exist, such as garages or cellars, for storage. Crowd-logistics thus becomes dominant because it enables optimal supply chain management within an ecological logic of reusing (logistics) resources that already exist.
The use of technology is, however, limited for the final distribution service owing to the aforementioned mistrust. The return to "physical" stores happens only at local/regional level.