Hypotheses
During the workshops, all 11 foresight files were presented to the members of the group, who were able to comment on them and add to them. Working from the material in the files, hypotheses on how the macro-variables might evolve were built collectively, distinguishing between:
- Trend-based hypothesis (H1): Digital and ecological transition in tension
- Contrasting hypothesis (H2): A strengthened link between technology and ecology and a renewal of European energy sovereignty
- Disruptive hypothesis (H3a): Technological innovations serving smart green cities
- Disruptive hypothesis (H3b): Technological slowdown due to public mistrust and energy pressures
Trend-based hypothesis (H1): Digital and ecological transition in tension
The growth of digital technologies partly supports the transition to the circular economy, notably by improving the efficiency of production processes and by enabling the industrialisation and optimisation of recycling processes. However, these technologies also generate significant digital pollution and thus cause a rebound effect, increasing resource consumption. There is thus a general awareness that the long-awaited savings from technology in terms of the circular economy are cancelled out by the rebound effects of those same technologies, such as the increase in energy-hungry data needed to power artificial intelligence.
Despite promises of long-term efficiency, 5G and industrial interoperability worsen this consumption in the short term, with the intensification of short-range Wi-Fi networks (Bluetooth) that have become standard technologies. Moreover, remote working becomes widespread through a post-Covid effect and leads to massive development of virtualisation and pervasive computing. This rapid change gives rise to regulatory initiatives in favour of "twinned" approaches aimed at minimising the environmental impact of technologies while harnessing their potential to support the transition to a circular economy, but these struggle to achieve concrete results.
In a context of France's and Europe's growing dependence on raw materials, research into bio-based and biodegradable materials develops in order to find sustainable alternatives to conventional plastics. The share of bioplastics thus rises appreciably but remains marginal given its low economic competitiveness compared with conventional plastic and the scarcity of dedicated recycling channels.
From an energy standpoint, the electrification of processes leads to an appreciable rise in electricity consumption, covered by an energy mix still dominated by nuclear power but with a strong push from renewables.
Contrasting hypothesis (H2): A strengthened link between technology and ecology and a renewal of European energy sovereignty
Digital technologies (in particular pervasive computing, AI and blockchain) play a key role in the circular economy by optimising energy consumption, tracing carbon impact and improving product life cycles. The growing use of these technologies nevertheless gives rise to trust issues that require the introduction of regulation (AI trust) and significant investment in cybersecurity.
Eco-responsible technological innovations are assessed on their overall impacts, both environmental and social. New standards and measures are thus implemented, such as the creation of a digital pollution index to be charged to companies according to their technology consumption, and the limitation of the environmental impact of data centres through new laws that push them to limit their impacts (the "Fit-for-55" package). All these alternatives are accompanied by a real change in values and in societal philosophy (less having, more being) that is found in Industry 5.0, which aligns innovation with the inclusion of people and their environment.
Progress in bioplastics research, combined with the development of dedicated recycling channels, leads to significant growth in production but also generates resistance from some players who warn of the pressure this places on agricultural land.
The development of new technologies in nuclear power (marine renewable energy, generation IV) and in renewables (ultra-high-performance photovoltaic modules, very large-span low-speed blades) allows Europe to regain a form of energy sovereignty and to cope with the electrification of uses, in particular the thermal processes accompanying the decarbonisation of industry.
Disruptive hypothesis (H3a): Technological innovations serving smart green cities
Technological innovations enable the development of effective tools to act on circular economy processes. In particular, uses are optimised thanks to the effective coupling of AI, IoT and blockchain, made possible by quantum computing reaching maturity. These technologies are supported by greater openness of data thanks to legislative initiatives such as the Data Act, but are also more closely controlled as regards their sustainability (eco-design and energy labelling rules for smartphones and tablets, for example).
New solutions develop around these technologies in the fields of the bioeconomy and smart green cities. The latter aim for a form of food and energy autonomy, and optimised resource management at city scale. They produce crops and waste to feed the bioeconomy and make extensive use of bioplastics which, thanks to research, have become economically competitive and no longer require the use of agricultural land.
The development of these new cities leads to a global movement of decentralisation of electricity production, notably through the development of small modular reactors (SMRs under 300 MW) that succeed in reducing production costs. Beyond this decentralised production, nuclear power also develops through the commissioning of closed-cycle reactors that produce little waste. Power stations broadly reap the benefits of innovations in digitalisation, the use of digital twins and robotisation. They thus succeed in increasing their flexibility, improving their maintenance and reducing their costs. Renewables are also developing in order to meet needs for energy independence at local level.
Disruptive hypothesis (H3b): Technological slowdown due to public mistrust and energy pressures
The rise of technology loses momentum through the combination of various factors. On the one hand, citizens and consumers are increasingly mistrustful following major hacks of sensitive data and the proliferation of studies describing their harmful health effects (Wi-Fi, 5G). AI programmes in particular are held back by blunders involving weapons equipped with this type of technology, which activists have made public. The implementation, notably at European level, of initiatives on the autonomy of AI programmes (such as AI Trust) fails to reassure public opinion.
Moreover, technologies such as blockchain or IoT are fundamentally called into question because of their energy-hungry nature in a context of great pressure on resources and on energy production. Following a major accident, the share of nuclear power in the energy mix falls drastically but cannot be offset by the development of renewables, thus creating strong pressure on energy production and putting industrial electrification programmes on hold.
In this context, manufacturers' investments in technological innovation focus on cybersecurity, relegating to second place the development of tools dedicated to implementing circular economy approaches. In a context of great difficulty in accessing raw materials and energy, circular economy efforts focus mainly on recycling and resource optimisation, but using technology only very secondarily.