Hypotheses
Over the course of the one-day workshops, all 11 foresight files were presented to the members of the group, who were able to comment on them and add to them. Working from the material in the files, hypotheses on how the macro-variables might evolve were built collectively, distinguishing between:
- Trend-based hypotheses: which relate to dynamics already under way.
- Contrasting hypotheses: which take up uncertainties, controversies and the seeds of change.
- Disruptive hypotheses: which relate to disruptions.
Trend-based hypothesis (H1): Resilience and persistence
Faced with crises and institutional pressures, supply chains (SCs) tend to develop greater resilience. Resilience then aims at the stability of all players, through an ability to bounce back after a disruption within an SC seen as a closed, planned and controlled system. The use of technologies such as blockchain strengthens transparency across the whole SC, which reinforces the trust of all players, including consumers, and facilitates the introduction of new practices linked to the circular economy. The institutionalisation of the 3Rs (reduce, reuse and recycle) continues (e.g. the strengthening of the "3R" decree under the AGEC law; tender criteria) despite rising transport costs and the growing scarcity of raw materials, underlining the importance of economic resilience.
More effective closed-loop management of the 3Rs develops, leading to a growing role for local authorities and to the emergence and/or strengthening of new players within SCs (for example the recycling trade federations FEDEREC or FNADE). In practice, SCs still involve numerous players (second-tier suppliers, B2B2C distribution chains containing several intermediaries and customers) but the SC strategy remains controlled by the focal company. The latter strengthens its dominant position and its objectives of efficiency, customer satisfaction and chain resilience through the use of new technologies (4.0). The focal company will then be the first to introduce new circular practices, which gradually spread to the other partners within the SC.
Ultimately, long and partially circular SCs favour activities linked to one of ADEME's pillars of the circular economy (recycling, eco-design, functional economy, etc.) - namely recycling - at the expense of a comprehensive approach to circularity. Highly heterogeneous, the practices linked to the circular economy raise questions as to companies' ability to adopt a holistic perspective that fosters synergy between sustainability and circularity.
Contrasting hypothesis (H2): Coexistence of conventional and circular models
The contrasting hypothesis for 2030 anticipates the impact of advanced and low-tech technologies in reducing the environmental impact of SCs by improving recycling and reducing the use of raw materials in the face of limited recycled resources. Faced with these challenges, SMEs then attempt to relocate all or part of their production, which is not the case for large companies. Indeed, large-scale relocation projects are held back by soaring energy prices and by shortages of skills and labour at national level.
At the same time, the polarisation between climate-sceptic citizens and citizens aware of the reality of climate change leads to a growing contrast between two models: on the one hand the maintenance of conventional SCs, on the other the development of circular and sustainable SCs, notably with the strengthening of the second-hand market.
Conventional SCs have no choice but to incorporate environmental issues (resource management, waste, etc.) in the face of the reality of climate change. For example, more and more manufacturers and their suppliers are joining the Carbon Disclosure Project in order to measure the carbon emissions of their SC concretely. However, the performance sought remains above all economic. For example, the selection of suppliers (first and second tier) remains linked to efficiency criteria (cost/lead time), at the expense of environmental and social issues.
Circular and sustainable SCs focus more on social and ethical dimensions towards workers, sometimes even more prominent than environmental issues. Economic performance (short term) is then joined by the organisational performance of the SC (long term), in terms of resilience and reliability, as an essential criterion for standing out in a constantly changing market. NGOs then play a more important role in monitoring (as whistleblowers) and in standardising (through labels) the sustainable practices of circular and sustainable SCs.
Disruptive hypothesis (H3): Local and circular SCs imposed globally
The disruptive hypothesis for 2030 anticipates a local and circular SC imposed globally. The multiple health and geopolitical crises cause a major rise in transport costs (rising energy prices) and in delivery times (border closures, areas that have become dangerous), leading to the collapse of long-distance transport and to a relocation of production.
Moreover, the ecological disaster leads companies to use electric transport locally, and to discontinue the product return service for their consumers. The latter must now manage the end of life of products. Second-hand chains become the norm, supported by company assistance. This short, local, circular SC model becomes standardised worldwide. It ensures socio-economic resilience by incorporating social, ethical and environmental sustainability issues. For example, within the textile industry, the model of the Teemill platform, which offers to produce t-shirts designed to be sent back and recycled when worn out, becomes the norm.
The circular SC is then interpreted as a fluid, open system, with a strong capacity for adaptation and transformation, and a horizontal strategic decision-making process. Consumers and second-tier suppliers play a decision-making role within this type of SC, putting an end to the paternalistic approach of focal companies. The role of NGOs also evolves, as they become involved in building and shaping SC strategy. New technologies optimise resource use and reduce waste in order to increase environmental performance, which has become the priority. The effectiveness of SCs is then measured mainly according to resource management (e.g. the Product Environmental Footprint method) and ADEME's 7 pillars of the circular economy.