Foresight files
The foresight files offer the opportunity to analyse how the macro-variables are evolving through the following 3 sections:
1. Definition and relationships with other fields
Definition of the file's macro-variable : A concise definition specifying the main content selected for this theme.
Link with the subject / key questions for its futures: Justifying why this constitutes a "key question" for all or part of the reflection on the future of the subject "uberization and industry in 2030".
Relationships with the other themes of the foresight system: Understanding the role of this macro-variable in how the foresight system evolves.
2. Summary of the retrospective analysis
Retrospective (in general and for uberization and industry 2030): Key points in the history of the macro-variables (quantitative and qualitative) that have significantly influenced how the subject has evolved in recent years.
Dynamics under way: Current dynamics of the theme with reference to developments over the last ten to fifteen years, which will partly shape future developments.
3. Foresight exploration
Exploring the possible developments of this theme and its main variables, drawing on the following "foresight grammar":
- Invariants: Factors that are not expected to change over the time horizon under consideration.
- Major trends: A movement affecting a phenomenon in such a way that its evolution over time can be anticipated (for example urbanisation, demographics, etc.) over the time horizon under consideration.
- Major uncertainties: A subject that is central to the future of the system under study and for which the possible developments are highly contrasting.
- Controversies: A subject that is central to the future of the system under study and on which opinions express highly contrasting and irreconcilable visions.
- Weak signals: Factors of change, barely perceptible today, that will constitute the major trends of tomorrow.
- Disruptions: A sudden phenomenon affecting a dimension or a driver of change in the system under study, which may shift the course of the system's history.