Hypotheses
Over the course of 2 one-day workshops, all 12 foresight files were presented to the members of the group, who were able to comment on them and add to them. Working from the material in the files, hypotheses on how the macro-variables might evolve were built collectively, distinguishing between:
- Trend-based hypotheses: which relate to dynamics already under way.
- Contrasting hypotheses: which take up uncertainties, controversies and the seeds of change.
- Disruptive hypotheses: which relate to disruptions.
Trend-based hypothesis: Towards an industrial economy of continents
Owing to political tensions, notably between China and the United States, industrial momentum is no longer conceived at global level but is organised at continental level: Europe, the Americas, Asia. Globally, Europe confirms its decline relative to other regions of the world; it is less heavily industrialised, which makes it fragile.
Transport costs are increasingly significant and entail relocating production sites. Manufactured goods are produced within each continental region for distribution to the other countries of the region. Continental regionalisation entails, for example, relocating production to Eastern European countries for Europe rather than to Asia. In particular, production in the automotive, aerospace and construction industries is located within the continental regions.
Within these regions, production plants are reconfigured: they are digital and grouped geographically into competitiveness zones, with differentiated expertise by zone (e.g. a zone specialising in aerospace production, an automotive industry zone, etc.). It is large groups that dominate the market and continue their acquisitions of SMEs and start-ups.
Manufacturers no longer focus solely on reducing costs, but favour investment in the future and develop R&D. Like China, manufacturers rely on public authorities for their investment momentum, in particular in training the people in charge of R&D. In Europe, however, the difficulty of steering public investment persists.
Contrasting hypothesis: The digital-industrial turning point driven by Europe
Considered an essential condition of Europe's development, substantial investment is made at industrial level, particularly in its digital dimension. Companies first benefit from direct funding by responding to calls for projects. Then, if they opt for certain digital investments, companies benefit from tax advantages. European institutions encourage manufacturers to pool and share material resources but also to develop partnerships in order to foster knowledge exchange between people belonging to different companies. Networks of experts thus become formalised and intervene in industrial companies with official affiliation to Europe. Finally, Europe places public orders that help revive industry.
Building on the development of these various resource provisions, companies are able to invest, notably in the digitalisation of their production equipment. Staff are trained in digital tools and develop their know-how both for using these technologies and for transforming the tools.
This investment is mainly aimed at medium-sized industries. Mid-caps and SMEs (whose current added value amounts to 140 billion euros) carry European investment and put it into practice. This momentum results in a very high level of automation in production plants. Employees are trained to develop services around the goods produced, within the framework of the functional economy.
Europe, which invests massively in industry, gives up many existing programmes and projects concerning other fields. The risk of public authorities withdrawing from the other dimensions of public services materialises through the gradual abandonment of social, cultural and other actions that are no longer considered priorities.
Disruptive hypothesis: The unravelling of the Chinese model
China faces numerous difficulties concurrently. First, following massive state investment in technological development, such as the rollout of 5G, the country is over-indebted. Next, it has to face increased competition from countries with lower labour costs such as India or Brazil. Finally, the trade war with the United States weakens its economy. With the occurrence of these various events, China rapidly loses significant markets in the United States, Europe and Asia, and fails to maintain its level of growth.
Faced with these growing economic difficulties, tensions over working conditions become increasingly strong, all the more so as the products manufactured reach the end of their life cycle, which entails even greater cost reduction (budget restrictions, redundancy plans, etc.). Production struggles to renew itself and to find new targets. This movement is accentuated by the departure of trained people who could be behind the renewal of industry and who move abroad to develop their skills.
When the economic situation becomes too difficult for the daily life of the Chinese, and political tensions are too great, the people revolt, challenge the existing power and a phase of democratic transition begins. This transition puts a brake on the country's industrial momentum, with the public authorities having to focus more on social aspects in order to reduce the revolts and gain new legitimacy.
In Europe, faced with this unforeseeable upheaval, manufacturers reduce their trade with China, refocus on neighbouring countries and take environmental and social dimensions into account in order to develop the circular economy.