Hypotheses
Over the course of 2 one-day workshops, all 12 foresight files were presented to the members of the group, who were able to comment on them and add to them. Working from the material in the files, hypotheses on how the macro-variables might evolve were built collectively, distinguishing between:
- Trend-based hypotheses: which relate to dynamics already under way.
- Contrasting hypotheses: which take up uncertainties, controversies and the seeds of change.
- Disruptive hypotheses: which relate to disruptions.
Trend-based hypothesis: The BC revolution
BC is deployed on a massive scale thanks to simplified and more energy-efficient technology. Blockchain spreads among consumers through use, without their being aware of the underlying technology.
We are also witnessing a vast movement of "tokenization" of the economy: personal data is no longer handed over free of charge by platform and social network users but is monetised through tokens. More accessible technology allows anyone to produce their own tokens, to exchange them (bartering) and to access services on various digital platforms. Beyond speculation, cryptocurrencies enable substantial fundraising through ICOs and contribute actively to the real economy.
Faced with this explosion in BC uses, traditional players attempt to catch up by buying and integrating technology components but remain behind. C to C platforms that can be uberized by smart contracts disappear (Uber, Airbnb, Booking, etc.). Amazon survives and becomes one of the component providers of BC infrastructure.
Second-generation bots spread massively, particularly in the field of customer relations. The combination of BC, AI and bots allows individuals to take out offers at the best price and service (comparison tools) through smart contracts. The ability to integrate these technologies becomes a condition of survival for companies.
Contrasting hypothesis: BC benefiting traditional players and platforms
No large-scale deployment of BC and smart contracts, whose technology remains too complex to be used by the general public. It remains essentially in the hands of a few miners and expert coders. The development of BC also remains limited by a technology that continues to consume a great deal of electricity. Mining farms develop mainly in China under ecological and social conditions viewed negatively by the general public.
The "utilities" dimension of tokens disappears. The creation of individualised tokens is a utopian idea of the 2020 hippies that did not subsequently materialise, and the use of services on platforms via tokens remains relatively marginal. Tokens and, more broadly, cryptocurrencies are essentially used for speculative purposes. ICOs involve significant investment amounts but affect real economic activity only marginally.
Traditional players manage to integrate BC technology well without this being visible to consumers. Introducing this technology enables them to reduce labour costs significantly and increase their margins.
Platforms manage to maintain their hegemony by capturing all the value thanks to successful integration of BC technology.
The sense of intrusion regarding data is increasingly present among citizens; the strong return of "the human" and the problems linked to embedded AI limit the deployment of bot technologies.
Disruptive hypothesis: BC held back by hackers
Hackers manage to hack the blockchain. Its reputation as an unbreakable technology is shattered and its foundations have to be rethought. This has the effect of drastically slowing the development of BC and related applications. Tokens (and more broadly all cryptocurrencies) and smart contracts are thus also losing momentum. We are witnessing a broad movement of disinvestment linked to these technologies, which further increases their development lag.
In this context, traditional players find themselves in a form of status quo, in so far as the BC threat disappears. Platforms, for their part, continue to develop rapidly without fear of being uberized by BC, whose technology has been fundamentally called into question.
The emergence of quantum computing and the development of higher-performing AI allow everyone to develop their own personalised assistants. Through the digital giants such as Amazon, individuals have at their disposal digital toolboxes enabling them to create their own individualised bots.