Hypotheses
During the workshops, all 11 foresight files were presented to the members of the group, who were able to comment on them and add to them. Working from the material in the files, hypotheses on how the macro-variables might evolve were built collectively, distinguishing between:
- Trend-based hypotheses: which relate to dynamics already under way.
- Contrasting hypotheses: which take up uncertainties, controversies and the seeds of change.
- Disruptive hypotheses: which relate to disruptions.
Trend-based hypothesis (H1): Eclectic policies limiting the development of industry
European and French strategies focus on the digital and ecological transition of manufacturers. They concentrate their resources on the decarbonisation process, relegating biodiversity, health and social questions to second place. At European level, the resources devoted to industrial policy are significant but remain insufficient to close the gap with China or the United States. The rollout of the carbon border adjustment mechanism creates a distortion of competition between European manufacturers (which have to raise their prices to offset the adjustment mechanisms) and external markets (which are not subject to the same constraints and can still export their finished products, which are not covered by the application of a carbon tax).
At national level, the schemes mobilised succeed in supporting innovation and the modernisation of the historic sectors of French industry but still struggle to reach all sectors. Moreover, the persistent complexity of the support landscape is an obstacle to access for smaller companies. The ability of industrial policies to develop breakthrough innovations remains limited, notably by technology transfers that struggle to be deployed significantly. The schemes mobilised still suffer from a lack of evaluation and of stability over time.
At regional level, industrial policies develop by maintaining processes such as "Territoires d'industrie", which have produced positive results, and the regions see their economic powers strengthened. However, these policies remain heterogeneous depending on the history, dynamics and specialisation of each area. Regional dynamics are also strengthened by the development of Territorial Innovation Ecosystems, which are being rolled out and institutionalised but struggle to establish lasting momentum.
Contrasting hypothesis (H2): Greater homogenisation and ambition in industrial policies
Whether at European or national level, industrial policies now incorporate the ecological transition not only through decarbonisation but by adopting a broader perspective anchored in the principles of the bioeconomy. The ambitions of these policies are strengthened by increased financial resources and the implementation of proactive measures. This includes protectionist environmental measures, such as the introduction of a Buy European Act and the application of a reciprocity principle on taxes on imported products. In addition, a carbon border adjustment mechanism more favourable to European industry is introduced, helping to re-concentrate value chains on European soil and reducing the competitive gap with China and the United States.
At national level, a general effort to homogenise and simplify public policies across different sectors improves their effectiveness. However, problems of policy stability and evaluation persist. Regional policies in particular develop significantly and more coherently, notably driven by the Territorial Innovation Ecosystems, which multiply and succeed in enduring over time.
These ecosystems play a crucial role in facilitating collaboration between various local stakeholders, such as companies, local authorities and research institutes, in order to promote sustainable and innovative initiatives. The projects developed within these ecosystems benefit from greater support thanks to dedicated funding and suitable infrastructure. This dynamic fosters the emergence of new technologies and of more environmentally friendly industrial practices, while strengthening the competitiveness of local companies on the global market.
Disruptive hypothesis (H3): An industrial policy that becomes a model on the ecological front
Europe's ambitious industrial policy enables strong reindustrialisation and a catching-up with China and the United States. The carbon border adjustment mechanism is extended to finished products, and Europe adopts strong protectionism through barriers to entry for products that do not adopt its overall environmental approach, set within a bioeconomy logic. European mechanisms thus become models on external markets.
At national level, total homogenisation of public policies is achieved, both across sectors and between large groups and small companies, thanks to a simplification shock, the introduction of evaluation mechanisms and the creation of a ministry of industry. This simplification makes it possible to reduce administrative complexity and to make industrial policies more accessible and effective for all companies, regardless of their size.
In parallel, a genuine decentralisation of industrial policies is introduced, with resources made available to territories. The Territorial Innovation Ecosystems are rolled out massively and become structuring models, fostering local momentum for innovation and sustainable industrial development. These ecosystems, supported by adequate funding, make it possible to create synergies between the various local players, such as companies, local authorities and research institutes, in order to promote ecologically responsible and economically viable initiatives.
Territories thus benefit from greater autonomy in implementing industrial policies, which makes it possible to better meet local needs and to encourage creativity and innovation. Decentralised financial resources allow regions to develop suitable infrastructure and to support innovative projects, contributing to a harmonious and sustainable reindustrialisation of Europe.
In conclusion, this integrated and decentralised approach to European and national industrial policy, combined with mechanisms of environmental protectionism and administrative simplification, makes it possible to strengthen Europe's competitiveness on the world stage while supporting a transition towards a more sustainable and equitable economy.