Hypotheses
During the workshops, all 11 foresight files were presented to the members of the group, who were able to comment on them and add to them. Working from the material in the files, hypotheses on how the macro-variables might evolve were built collectively, distinguishing between:
- Trend-based hypotheses: which relate to dynamics already under way.
- Contrasting hypotheses: which take up uncertainties, controversies and the seeds of change.
- Disruptive hypotheses: which relate to disruptions.
Trend-based hypothesis (H1): The cold understanding, or "too big to fail"
Following Donald Trump's re-election in 2024, the United States continues to dominate global leadership, despite the rise of regional blocs. China "peacefully" annexes Taiwan, and Russia does the same with the Donbas, thus maintaining a fragile peace equilibrium. However, tensions remain present, amplifying geopolitical uncertainty. In this multipolar global context, protectionism and populism grow stronger owing to increasing uncertainty.
The European Union strengthens its position as an environmental leader by introducing a carbon border tax by 2030 and by raising trade barriers to protect its industry. Reindustrialisation and rearmament investment are encouraged, but these initiatives face funding difficulties and rising debt. The global economic model remains oriented towards "business as usual" despite raw material shortages and more frugal consumption.
Global trade remains open, but with more customs barriers justified by environmental and social policies. Globalisation retreats somewhat, but it remains a framework to be preserved within a "cold understanding" between nations. Growing demand from investors and consumers for circular practices pushes companies to adopt sustainable models.
In short, the growth model of globalisation persists in a climate of cold understanding, with a precarious balance between protectionism and international cooperation. This dynamic strongly influences economic and industrial policies, while underlining the growing importance of ecological and sustainable initiatives.
Contrasting hypothesis (H2): Global transition, contested leadership and European economic challenges
The United States continues to dominate global leadership, although its position is challenged by the rise of regional blocs and by growing demands from Chinese youth seeking to overthrow those in power, marking a "Chinese spring". China continues its expansion via the Silk Road, while Iran asserts itself as a regional nuclear power. At the same time, African demands become more significant, reflecting a shift in the balance towards regional blocs.
Europe is marked by the rise of the far right and by an enlargement of the European Union. The EU's centrality and independence decline, affecting its political and economic position. The region suffers from a loss of economic power and from growing strategic dependence. Reindustrialisation through protectionism is encouraged, but demographics and debt weigh heavily. The premature withdrawal of fiscal stimulus limits the capital available for green investment, hampering the necessary structural reforms.
Globally, oil reserves are estimated to have fallen by 50%, accentuating the protectionist management of resources. Trade wars multiply, with strong protectionism between spheres of influence but relative openness between blocs. Food shortages and growing dependence on imports drive prices up, particularly affecting farmers.
In short, global dynamics evolve towards multipolar leadership marked by growing tensions, a Europe undergoing strategic readjustment and a protectionist management of resources, shaping the global economy and future industrial policies.
Disruptive hypothesis (H3): Regional crises and global economic fragmentation
In a world where regional tensions reach unprecedented levels, the conflict between China and Taiwan takes on critical proportions, plunging the region into major economic crises. This escalation draws in key players such as Japan and the United States, thereby fuelling instability worldwide. At the same time, cracks form within traditional alliances, with countries deciding to leave NATO and a European Union facing gradual disintegration.
This regional fragmentation is exacerbated by China, which decides to close its raw materials market to both the EU and the United States. These manoeuvres fuel tensions within the BRICS, making regional groupings increasingly hostile towards China. This reconfiguration of regional blocs, combined with factors such as the decline of the African population and the EU's expansion into the Middle East, profoundly disrupts the established geopolitical balance.
Italy, facing a disastrous economic situation, finds itself at an impasse of bankruptcy, triggering a cascade of repercussions within the eurozone and European debt. This crisis further weakens the EU, pushing it to seek autonomy in raw materials and technology. However, this quest runs up against a growing trend towards autarky, with each nation favouring its own resources.
In this rapidly changing landscape, Chinese technology gradually eclipses that of the United States, while a cryptocurrency emerges as a potential replacement for the dollar as the dominant world currency. This dynamic of growing conflict and reduced international cooperation shapes a fragmented global economy, in which nations adopt models of autarky and maintain constantly shifting regional alliances.
The closure of markets, technological rivalry and new power dynamics redefine international relations, marking the beginning of an era characterised by intense conflict and major geopolitical transformations. In this constantly evolving context, regional blocs' quest for autonomy runs up against complex economic and political realities, giving rise to a multipolar world in constant redefinition.
