Hypotheses
During the workshops, all 11 foresight files were presented to the members of the group, who were able to comment on them and add to them. Working from the material in the files, hypotheses on how the macro-variables might evolve were built collectively, distinguishing between:
- Trend-based hypotheses: which relate to dynamics already under way.
- Contrasting hypotheses: which take up uncertainties, controversies and the seeds of change.
- Disruptive hypotheses: which relate to disruptions.
Trend-based hypothesis (H1): Continued development of training and skills within a logic of adaptation rather than anticipation
The blending of training content increases, while retaining the primacy of certifying bodies and of degrees from prestigious universities and schools, with a rise in decarbonisation and digital training, although still lagging one step behind needs. There is a race for skills and a search for mainly dual skill sets (digital + production engineering; digital + environment, etc.), in ultra-specialised profiles, still valuing soft skills and "intellectual" technical abilities oriented towards engineers, e-maintenance and quality.
Industrial employment still stagnates at around 10-11% of total employment, with, on the other hand, a significant rise in self-employed status. Despite the ageing population, the labour market is regulated by the increased employability of older workers, by migration and by the decline (substitution) of unqualified occupations with technological change.
At the same time, there is a widening of inequalities and of working conditions between employees in qualified occupations enjoying favourable conditions (e.g. "liberated" companies) and self-employed, unqualified workers experiencing an intensification of work. Young people still attach great importance to meaning in work, but there is a growing gap with companies' promises and, ultimately, the main criteria for joining a company remain linked to the economic advantages of large companies or to the creativity of innovative SMEs and start-ups. Careers therefore continue to be nomadic, translating into high professional mobility according to the advantages mentioned above and to the acquisition of skills. The digitalisation of work leads to broader acceptance of remote working and coworking spaces, while the company's role as a vehicle for social interaction weakens.
Contrasting hypothesis (H2): Renewed value for manual work and a strong return of the collective in a context of industrial recovery
Changes to the school system from primary level onwards (oriented around the manual work of the circular economy and around technology) make it possible to better meet the need for new manual and technical skills linked to digital technology, as well as a sense of collective work. Technology (e.g. AI) is precisely mobilised to better anticipate occupations.
Versatile profiles whose skills are oriented towards the goals of the circular economy are now valued, and greater value is given to manual occupations formerly considered less noble (sorting, repair, recycling, already present in the collective logic of the social economy), which are undergoing profound change. For example, the resurgence of manual maintenance, renewed and combined with e-maintenance.
A sense of the collective becomes a structuring factor in HR policies and encourages the development of skills-pooling approaches. The high employability of older workers, to offset the ageing population and regulate the labour market, makes it possible in particular to take advantage of synergies between older workers' experience and young people's digital skills.
Industrial employment finds new momentum and manages to rise above the 10-11% threshold of total employment thanks to a relocation of production, which in its wake brings a rise in employment in manual occupations, and thanks also to better anticipation of circular-economy and technology occupations, with the creation of posts to better address the goals of the circular economy. In particular, the extended service life of goods and their increased recycling significantly influence maintenance occupations, which are increasingly computer-assisted (+80,000 skilled workers).
These changes help reduce the gaps in working conditions between qualified and unqualified occupations. A "good career" can thus be a manual one, and "meaning in work" rests mainly on the collective and on environmental values. Loyalty to a single company remains low; there is no return to the classic career model. On the other hand, self-employed status remains marginal and the cooperative model spreads. By joining workers' cooperatives or local industry-related economic interest groupings and cooperatives, workers gain better control over their working conditions.
Disruptive hypothesis (H3a): Uberization of industrial work
The uberization of work extends to all occupations, including those in industry. This uberization rests on the transformation of training, which has become ultra-personalised and constantly evolving thanks to the use of AI, and on the end of the prestige of degrees from elite schools and universities (training organisations proliferate in all forms, are more agile and accessible online). As a result, skills are shifting and constantly evolving for workers, and pooled on the company side in order to enable the recruitment of skills project by project.
Industrial employment is no longer measured specifically at national level and the notion of an industrial occupation becomes less meaningful: individualised and constantly evolving occupations adjust to the specific needs of each company project. This configuration facilitates the match between supply and demand in a labour market that has become more flexible and that spans local, national and global scales according to needs.
Beyond the constraints imposed by the labour market, the employability of the working population applies at any age and rests on individual choices, with everyone having their own "meaning in work" (according to their personal interests and commitments). Some workers will stop earlier and others will continue beyond the age of 67. Career success comes through workers' ability to develop their "employee brand", by continuously developing their skills.
The hybridisation of statuses, with no apparent distinction between the self-employed and employees, has become the norm (e.g. no more notable differences in social security, pension rights, etc.) and it accentuates the insecurity of the most vulnerable (those less agile and with limited financial means to develop their skills). The individualisation of work, combined with digital technology, reinforces public coworking spaces and diminishes companies' role in social interaction.
Disruptive hypothesis (H3b): A return to a classic model, but renewed by a circular economy logic that extends into private life.
A return to a traditional form of work, but renewed by greater detachment from work in order to focus on other activities and on taking on the circular economy as a citizen.
Training remains traditional, with a partial revaluation of manual skills that are not solely dedicated to the professional sphere. Manual skills serving circular economy goals are in fact valued above all for the private sphere, while companies continue to value soft and intellectual skills.
There is a return to classic careers based on the psychological contract of "security and loyalty", with a strengthening of the company as a vehicle for social interaction and a reduction in the digitalisation of work. This model of work is nevertheless renewed with greater company commitment to "liberated company" models and to circular economy logics in human resources management, potentially affecting every dimension of work (content, organisation, human relations). For example, promoting the eco-design of practices and of the working environment, applying the recycling principle to rethink the internal redeployment of workers, or the repair principle for better reintegration of employees after a prolonged absence.
The model of work is also renewed with the standardisation of the four-day week, or even less in the most forward-looking companies, in line with the search for greater personal fulfilment and the end of "meaning given to work", which is no longer an end in itself.
The reduction in working time, combined with a fall in the employability of older workers who retire earlier, makes it possible to regulate the labour market despite the fall in the industrial employment rate following the slowdown in manufacturers' activity (within an approach of slowing production and consumption).