Hypotheses
Over the course of 2 one-day workshops, all 12 foresight files were presented to the members of the group, who were able to comment on them and add to them. Working from the material in the files, hypotheses on how the macro-variables might evolve were built collectively, distinguishing between:
- Trend-based hypotheses: which relate to dynamics already under way.
- Contrasting hypotheses: which take up uncertainties, controversies and the seeds of change.
- Disruptive hypotheses: which relate to disruptions.
Trend-based hypothesis: digital industry financed and financialised within a functional economy
Investment
Bank lending rates remain very low, which allows companies to invest heavily. This investment focuses on renewing their production equipment in order to incorporate the digital dimension. The result is a systematisation of the internet of things and of individuals' participation in producing data to feed big data. (For example, a Canadian hospital collects data from all its medical measurement equipment linked to RFID chips given to patients on arrival at the hospital; collecting this data allows manufacturers of MRI scanners, CT scanners, etc. to adapt their offer.)
The leaders on the (traditional) financial markets absorb industrial groups, which become elements of portfolio diversification for financial investors.
Relationship with the financial markets
The disconnect between production values and financial values continues. At the time of the study, Uber was loss-making, yet valued at 68 billion dollars; the valuation of the four giants Google, Amazon, Facebook and Apple is greater than the total valuation of the CAC 40 companies. This trend continues. The real economy is subject to changes in the rates of financial products and adapts in order to offer a growing production offer.
Economic direction
The number of production plants stabilises, the decline in the number of jobs continues, and the jobs that develop are geared towards the service economy. The value created comes from the services associated with products, and not only from the products themselves.
Relationship with digital technology
With the digitalisation of the production chain, productivity increases. The supply chain is shortened, with production plants moving as close as possible to the consumer and becoming platforms that operate on the basis of digital programmes.
Contrasting hypothesis: Digital industry financed by fintechs
Investment
It is private individuals who invest in companies, because bank rates are no longer attractive enough. They make their investments through digital platforms and fintechs, which offer advantageous and innovative financial arrangements for individuals. Fintechs are companies offering alternative financing methods compared with banks, financial markets or insurers. Companies have now emerged in the fields of donation, lending, shareholding, virtual neobanks, payment methods and wealth management. An alternative payment method is, for example, the PayPal service, which has competitors such as Mornng or PayTop. For shareholding, services such as SmartAngels or WiSEED offer solutions for becoming a shareholder in companies.
In this hypothesis, manufacturers rely on funds from fintechs to develop their products and services and fintechs grow and finance industrial groups.
Relationship with the financial markets
Trading on the financial markets is no longer the preserve of certain companies and certain experts. Private individuals become more professional and trade financial securities, which leads to growth in the number of players investing on the markets. Uncertainty regarding the markets increases.
Economic direction
The service-production and functional economies are confirmed. The value created comes from the services associated with products, and no longer only from the products themselves.
Relationship with digital technology
Process automation becomes systematic and concerns every occupation. Investment in robots is massive, as is investment in artificial intelligence.
The boundary between value-added and non-value-added activities no longer plays a part in choices about automation, robotisation and the deployment of artificial intelligence, because technological power makes it possible to exceed human capabilities. Industry achieves productivity gains through this and the number of actual jobs declines.
Disruptive hypothesis: Development of cryptocurrencies in the face of bursting financial bubbles
Investment
A lasting financial crisis is caused by the bursting of successive financial bubbles after the collapse of sovereign debt rates linked to government bonds. To cope with this, new economic systems develop independently of states and alternative currencies from companies (such as Libra, Facebook's currency) develop and break free from the markets. Companies offer currencies that gradually emancipate themselves from financial systems by creating new ones.
Relationship with the financial markets
After the bursting of the bubble linked to mortgage lending, the securitisation of mortgage loans and the securitisation of debt, the securitisation of sovereign bonds has now become the last safety tier of the financial markets. When this bubble bursts, there is no higher tier to stabilise the system again. The financial model no longer holds; rates collapse. There is no longer any alternative for banks to clean up their assets. The collapse in rates destabilises the financial markets in a lasting way.
Economic direction
The service-production and functional economies are confirmed. The value created comes from the services associated with products and no longer only from the products themselves.
Relationship with digital technology
Financial exchanges take place around cryptocurrencies. This is made possible by the development of blockchain and by the democratisation of blockchain technology: everyone has access to this technology with minimal, readily available training. Cryptocurrencies proliferate, bitcoin regains a significant exchange value and other alternative currencies develop. They specialise by activity (for example, a cryptocurrency for purchases between individuals, between companies, or between companies and individuals).