Hypotheses
During the workshops, all 11 foresight files were presented to the members of the group, who were able to comment on them and add to them. Working from the material in the files, hypotheses on how the macro-variables might evolve were built collectively, distinguishing between:
- Trend-based hypotheses: which relate to dynamics already under way.
- Contrasting hypotheses: which take up uncertainties, controversies and the seeds of change.
- Disruptive hypotheses: which relate to disruptions.
Trend-based hypothesis (H1): An economy still linear but geared towards servicisation
The linear economic model remains predominant, sustained by continuous consumption of raw materials and energy. However, the functional economy gains in importance, driven by a general fall in purchasing power and a growing consumer preference for use rather than ownership. Short supply chains become the norm, long ones being increasingly unmanageable. Collaboration between companies and local stakeholders intensifies, with the emphasis on local business models.
The Repairability Index, introduced in France, encourages manufacturers to make products easier to repair, thereby supporting the durability of goods. At the same time, the development of eco-design and life cycle assessment (LCA) plays an essential role by enabling the reuse of materials, thus reducing the extraction of new resources. Technology and digitalisation play a crucial role in optimising resource flows. For example, the use of lignin for green battery anodes improves energy efficiency. These technological innovations enable better resource management and contribute to reducing waste.
Although these developments bring environmental benefits, they do not fundamentally call into question the intensive use of natural resources. Companies continue to exploit raw materials, and production remains largely based on a linear model. Nevertheless, the gradual integration of the functional economy and of repair practices indicates a partial transition towards more sustainable models.
Efforts to improve product repairability and optimise supply chains show a desire for change, even if the path towards genuine sustainability remains a long one.
Contrasting hypothesis (H2): Emergence of integrated models that are virtuous for the environment
Companies massively adopt eco-design, recycling and remanufacturing practices, which have become mandatory in all industrial sectors. Companies specialising in these technical skills emerge to support eco-design in other companies. Platforms facilitate connections between those seeking and those holding raw materials, while private households become sources of raw materials thanks to a mapping of available stocks.
A rise in community repair workshops encourages the exchange and repair of goods rather than their replacement. Consumers, having become "prosumers", actively participate in production through repair and bartering workshops and thus contribute to a more sustainable and resilient economy. Buildings are designed as libraries of reusable materials, supporting a robust circular economy. The pooling of goods, both for personal and industrial use, becomes commonplace.
This economic model is accompanied by a just transition, with the creation of new indicators to give value to sustainable practices. For example, a 30% reduction in industrial waste is achieved thanks to intensive recycling initiatives. Collaboration between companies, producers, distributors and local authorities is essential for waste management. New technologies and digitalisation play a crucial role in optimising resource flows, facilitating the tracking and management of materials.
Overall, a highly integrated and collaborative economy emerges, geared towards sustainability and the reduction of environmental impacts, with a collective commitment to preserving resources and minimising waste.
Disruptive hypothesis (H3): Abandonment or state control
In this disruptive hypothesis, two orthogonal trajectories emerge. In the first case, Europe and France completely abandon circular economy and recycling initiatives, deemed ineffective and costly. The linear economic model dominates once again without regard for the planet's resources, leading to increased exploitation of raw materials and a rise in waste. Technological advances and recycling practices are neglected, and products continue to be designed for single use.
In the second case, a radically different model emerges with the advent of the "Blue Economy", where industrial outputs become inputs for other processes. Industries establish strong links with local stakeholders, forming a dense web of cooperation and exchange of products, materials and services. Strict regulation of access to resources is introduced, with quotas and a rationing system based on the usefulness of products to society. For example, the use of copper could be reserved for essential applications such as energy infrastructure. This resource management system nevertheless risks turning into a directed, even dictatorial economy, imposing strict standards and rules on every aspect of production and consumption. Consumers lose individual ownership of goods, favouring shared and collective use of resources. This scenario, although extreme, aims to establish a sustainable and resilient balance, despite the challenges linked to strict regulation and the transition towards cooperative and circular economic models.
Regarding oversight of the applicability of regulatory measures, the European Union introduces monitoring and optimisation mechanisms for all EU countries, with an adaptation of the targets to be met. In parallel, France also puts in place standardised monitoring and optimisation mechanisms for all regions. A system of penalties and rewards is initiated according to the degree of progress of each country or region in the shift to circularity.