Hypotheses
Over the course of 2 one-day workshops, all 12 foresight files were presented to the members of the group, who were able to comment on them and add to them. Working from the material in the files, hypotheses on how the macro-variables might evolve were built collectively, distinguishing between:
- Trend-based hypotheses: which relate to dynamics already under way.
- Contrasting hypotheses: which take up uncertainties, controversies and the seeds of change.
- Disruptive hypotheses: which relate to disruptions.
Trend-based hypothesis: Public authorities put in place the conditions needed to catch up and develop the industry of the future in France.
"France is significantly behind in terms of digital transformation" is the title of a recent article published in the magazine Stratégies[1]. In order to make up this lag, the public authorities (State and regions) tend to develop the necessary conditions (infrastructure, logistics and funding) to help companies go digital.
Communication
The State develops a communication strategy aimed at raising awareness of digital transformation among as many companies as possible (micro-businesses, SMEs, mid-caps and large groups). Social media accounts and websites, such as FranceNum.gouv.fr, are created specifically to relay information continuously on the opportunities offered by digital technology. France Télévision produces a new television series that takes the opposite approach to Black Mirror by highlighting the potential of technology. Several conferences are organised alongside major trade fairs such as VivaTech to allow innovative companies to exhibit their products and meet investors.
Investment
Public authorities continue to roll out initiatives at regional level, consistent with national policies. National decisions are very quickly taken up at regional level and regional support policies are rolled out across the whole territory. This investment enables a greater number of companies to develop their 4.0 factory (notably additive manufacturing, cobots and automation), whether micro-businesses, SMEs or large groups. For example, the French aerospace industries association presented at the Paris Air Show a three-year industry of the future plan (2019-2022) intended to support 300 SMEs.
Research
Public authorities also grant resources to universities to support skills development and the deployment of technologies. For example, the University of Reims Champagne-Ardenne inaugurated a Romeo high-performance computing system with a power of 1 petaflop/s. The funding of this regional computing centre was as follows: €2.6m covered by the ERDF, €1m by the Region and €1m also split between Le Grand Reims and the University of Reims Champagne-Ardenne. The State contributed €633k[2]. In the Grand Est region, the 9 universities of the Rhine will also be able to consider deploying similar technologies.
There will also be a re-examination of the centres of expertise (the equivalent of the German Länder) organised by theme. It can be expected that the public authorities will choose to develop skills in artificial intelligence (in the wake of the Villani report) and in data analysis.
Another strong trend appears to be the coordination of research efforts carried out in universities. R&D initiatives will increasingly combine public and private funds. In addition, it is reasonable to think that the research tax credit, a long-standing scheme now well mastered by stakeholders, will be maintained.
Contrasting hypothesis: Organisations do not use the support policies
Communication
Political ambitions remain at the level of rhetoric and are not followed through in practice, notably for fear of pursuing policies that would destroy jobs. The State thus adopts a "technowashing" strategy, a marketing or public relations process used in order to give itself a misleading image as an innovative country very favourable to technology.
Investment
The few local elected representatives who develop support policies engage in clientelism, thus creating a lack of trust in the State's neutrality and the choices it makes. Consequently, companies call public funding policies into question and decide to organise among themselves. This keeps the pace of digital transformation very slow.
Research
Researchers, not fooled by this misleading communication, decide to rely on international funding to advance their work. A large number of researchers working in STEM disciplines (statistics, technology, engineering, mathematics) move abroad.
Disruptive hypothesis: Public policies are put at the service of safeguarding jobs
Communication
The "negative hype" surrounding the harmful effects of digitalisation is so strong that public actors end up redirecting public policies towards safeguarding jobs. Policies supporting digital transformation are heavily criticised and therefore halted. The government's communication is very negative towards digitalisation: anti-technology communication campaigns and campaigns against the dehumanisation of work develop (advertising in traditional media and on the internet).
Investment
The State chooses to limit the deployment of robotisation and other technologies in favour of maintaining jobs. Companies in the industrial sector are even rewarded for not having invested in automation and for having safeguarded their jobs. We thus witness a broad movement of disinvestment linked to automation, which further increases France's development lag.
Research
The effectiveness of public-private research models is also called into question. Research and innovation programmes no longer support the development of technologies such as robotisation and AI.
Companies carrying out technological innovation projects involving industrial research and/or experimental development work are no longer supported by the State. BPI France chooses to prioritise funding for the social and solidarity economy at the expense of funding for start-ups.