Hypotheses
During the workshops, all 11 foresight files were presented to the members of the group, who were able to comment on them and add to them. Working from the material in the files, hypotheses on how the macro-variables might evolve were built collectively, distinguishing between:
- Trend-based hypothesis (H1): Without purchasing power there is no responsible consumption
- Contrasting hypothesis (H2): Alternative models developing, but whose large-scale rollout remains hampered
- Disruptive hypothesis (H3) : Responsible consumption imposed by force
Trend-based hypothesis (H1): Without purchasing power there is no responsible consumption
Despite the fact that the majority of French consumers would be prepared to make more responsible choices for the good of the planet and the environment, responsible consumption remains strongly constrained by economic factors. Price is the main driver of purchasing decisions, especially in unfavourable economic conditions such as inflation and falling purchasing power.
Responsible consumption is therefore unequal, because it depends both on economic constraints and on social determinants. The result is that responsible consumption focuses on products characterised by greater financial accessibility, such as food products, increasingly excluding larger investments such as property. In this context, some potential consumers find themselves "excluded" from this way of consuming, generating further demotivation to commit to more responsible consumption and/or a greener lifestyle.
Responsible consumption in a broader sense thus becomes more a matter of niche consumption linked to social prestige and aimed at specific social classes, given that older consumers and affluent households show greater attention to the question of social and societal impact. At the same time, confusion in the information about products' impact on the health of the planet amplifies these inequalities.
Consumers remain highly sceptical about companies, their involvement and their real motivations, because they need proof in order to believe brands' commitments. Social networks contribute to this trend by enabling the development of online activism and the denunciation of practices previously imperceptible to the end consumer. Consumers are indeed inclined to buy products from brands that publicly commit to fighting global warming.
Contrasting hypothesis (H2): Alternative models developing, but whose large-scale rollout remains hampered
Certain options are emerging to conceive an alternative consumption model that promotes the development of repair, offers leasing rather than purchase and adopts a collaborative economy. At the same time, an awareness linked to consumption, or consumer awareness, is increasingly present in society and translates, for example, into a willingness to pay more for products from sustainable agriculture or into limiting purchases of new products.
This highlights the role of consumers in introducing bottom-up change through the adoption of circular innovations and pro-environmental behaviours. However, these alternative models remain hampered by a number of obstacles, notably economic barriers, their development being partly driven by financial considerations. Socio-spatial inequalities in access to responsible alternatives, such as soft mobility, represent other forms of barrier. In addition, intrinsic constraints, such as the individual's values and education in responsible consumption, but also extrinsic ones, linked to social pressure and social representation, play an important role.
Faced with these barriers, these alternatives require large-scale consumer awareness-raising through education, which is not easy and takes time. As a result, responsible consumption still remains a matter of identity, sometimes associated with forms of personal sacrifice, with a majority of consumers considering that making the right choices is an increasingly heavy and tiring burden to bear. In short, although alternative consumption models promise a more sustainable future, they require collective mobilisation and sustained educational efforts in order to overcome the many existing barriers.
Disruptive hypothesis (H3): Responsible consumption imposed by force
Thanks to the correlation between eco-anxiety and sustainable behaviours, responsible consumption becomes the norm. Faced with fear of the future, a majority of citizens and consumers have become aware of the need to act against climate change, whatever their social or geographical origin. This happens notably through the climate and its vagaries, whose urgency and consequences become visible and affect society through shortages of certain resources and natural disasters.
In addition to the awareness of consumers, who increasingly avoid eating meat or fish for reasons relating to the environment, human health and animal health, penalties are applied to those who do not play their part. Legislative developments mean that extended producer responsibility (EPR) requires manufacturers to commit and, where this is not possible (for example, products whose technology does not yet allow them to be manufactured responsibly), penalties are applied in the form of surcharges to consumers.
This awareness also concerns better education of citizens, who are now fully trained in eco-responsibility. This responsible consumption is also possible because non-responsible consumption is no longer accessible or encouraged, with, for example, the banning of advertising or the very large-scale implementation of alternatives (four-day week, end of the private car, etc.).
Thus, this combination of awareness, education, strict legislation and the establishment of sustainable alternatives makes responsible consumption the norm, thereby meeting environmental challenges