Hypotheses
Over the course of the one-day workshops, all 11 foresight files were presented to the members of the group, who were able to comment on them and add to them. Working from the material in the files, hypotheses on how the macro-variables might evolve were built collectively, distinguishing between:
- Trend-based hypotheses: which relate to dynamics already under way.
- Contrasting hypotheses: which take up uncertainties, controversies and the seeds of change.
- Disruptive hypotheses: which relate to disruptions.
Trend-based hypothesis (H1): Climate crises exacerbate vulnerabilities, inequalities and policy ineffectiveness
Climate crises multiply and exacerbate the vulnerability of the affected populations. Prolonged droughts, frequent flooding and violent storms have become more commonplace, destroying natural habitats and reducing biodiversity. Deforestation, worsened by increasingly frequent forest fires, contributes to a loss of the biomass essential for regulating the climate. Despite the growing resilience of societies, the political vision remains dominated by short-term economic interests. International efforts, although persistent, are scattered and often ineffective in the face of the scale of the changes. Initiatives such as the Conferences of the Parties (COP) are not followed by impactful measures: funding is complicated and governments are reluctant to change.
Business remains the priority, and consideration for the environment is treated as an add-on. Technological development aims to support economic growth and remains the ultimate lever for mitigating environmental impacts and meeting decarbonisation targets. However, these technologies, such as renewables and electrification, require infrastructure and resources that are hard to come by. Low-emission technologies proliferate, but their large-scale adoption remains limited by dependence on existing infrastructure and by political and economic reluctance to change current business models radically. The circular economy develops but remains confined to local initiatives without significant impact on global industry, which continues to depend on a heavily carbon-intensive value chain. Hydrocarbons, like plastics, remain unavoidable, and decarbonisation targets are still far from being met. Companies, although aware of the need to change, often hesitate to invest because of high initial costs, low growth and uncertainty over returns on investment.
On the social front, the resilience of the traditional consumption model persists, but is weakened by a strong disparity in purchasing power and by an ageing population. Health problems, such as the increase in illnesses caused by pollution and by growing anxiety, and the difficult integration of migration flows linked to climate crises, are central concerns that occupy media attention and political discourse. Social inequalities widen, with the poorest populations being the most affected by the impacts of climate change and finding it hardest to adopt the adaptation solutions offered by the market.
Contrasting hypothesis (H2): Warming kept in check by ambitious environmental policies
A greater understanding of climate hazards and effective proactive measures have mitigated global warming and improved the management of environmental crises, which remain active, and of resources that are still scarce and expensive. Thanks to a renewal of more ambitious international leadership, agreements have been established to ban certain products and extraction processes that emit high levels of greenhouse gases. These agreements, reinforced by widespread taxes on carbon and plastics, have helped structure transnational policies and markets, enabling more effective management of natural resources. The recognition of nature as a legal subject has also marked a major change in the way natural resources and living things are managed by human activity.
Companies play a key role in this dynamic. More and more companies are committing to eco-design, adopting the product-as-a-service concept that encourages durability through the repair and maintenance of products rather than their replacement. The development of the circular economy, although initially limited to local initiatives, has expanded thanks to managed degrowth models and significant technological advances. Decarbonised electricity generation, including nuclear power, has reduced dependence on fossil fuels. Technological innovations have also enabled a drastic reduction in the use of plastics and an improvement in techniques for capturing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. Landfill sites have become new sources of raw materials, turning waste into usable resources.
On the social front, a paradigm shift is observed among consumers, who no longer need to own a product in order to enjoy it. Communities of committed consumers and municipalities pursuing managed degrowth develop, promoting the sharing of means and resources that have become more expensive. Innovative community practices, local socio-ecological entrepreneurship, microfinance and intergenerational sharing have become pillars of economic development. International environmental investment increases, fostering the proactive management of migration flows, which are managed and integrated locally, reducing social and economic tensions globally. Summary: alternative consumption models tend to develop, driven by greater consumer awareness. They nevertheless remain hampered by economic barriers and socio-spatial inequalities. In addition, these alternatives require large-scale consumer awareness-raising that struggles to materialise. As a result, responsible consumption still remains largely a matter of identity, sometimes associated with forms of personal sacrifice.
Disruptive hypothesis (H3): Increase in climate crises, economic fragmentation and widening social inequalities
The frequency and severity of climate crises increase, threatening the stability of ecosystems and leading to a growing scarcity of natural resources. The declining importance of the COPs, marked by corruption and vested interests, has led to a breakdown of the international consensus and to disengagement from transition policies. Nationalist misinformation prioritises investment in weaponry and the race to exploit resources.
On the economic front, the development model remains linear: hydrocarbons and plastics remain central, but their cost rises, affecting the quality of processes and products. National markets fragment, leading to niche-based development in which the circular economy remains marginal, reserved for the wealthy and the committed. Cutting-edge technology (nuclear fusion, new materials, etc.) is both the means and the goal of certain development strategies, notably for resource extraction, rearmament and adaptation to environmental challenges. Nations seek resources in space and at the poles in order to sustain their model and support their ambitions.
On the social front, inequalities widen, further fragmenting society and marginalising the importance of managing climate crises. Some consumers adopt circular economy principles (repair, reuse) out of necessity: sharing communities and communities of committed citizens develop but remain isolated. The population falls owing to eco-anxiety and an awareness of planetary challenges, notably those linked to food production. Global conflicts exacerbate the environmental crisis, and migration flows become uncontrollable.