Hypotheses
Over the course of 2 one-day workshops, all 12 foresight files were presented to the members of the group, who were able to comment on them and add to them. Working from the material in the files, hypotheses on how the macro-variables might evolve were built collectively, distinguishing between:
- Trend-based hypotheses: which relate to dynamics already under way.
- Contrasting hypotheses: which take up uncertainties, controversies and the seeds of change.
- Disruptive hypotheses: which relate to disruptions.
Trend-based hypothesis: Instant consumption
The value placed on time shapes consumption behaviours. Consumers want to consume immediately and effortlessly in order to increase their free time. Manufacturers organise their logistics to satisfy this trend while also stimulating it through technology. Tools are therefore developed to enable faster consumption (immediacy, subscriptions, smart speakers, last mile, etc.) and to provide instant access to product information (scanning).
Logistics processes built on immediacy threaten the conventional distribution model.
The access to private data that this model requires could be challenged by consumers. Consumers are becoming more distrustful of brands and no longer wish to share their personal data (geolocation, personal tastes, emotions, etc.).
Contrasting hypothesis: Responsible consumption
Consumers bring their attitudes and their behaviour into line with a responsible approach to consumption. A widespread awareness of nutrition-related risks and of environmental degradation is changing consumption behaviours: local consumption, less transport and, ultimately, less consumption.
Labels become essential in order to sell, and we are witnessing the rise of organic and local produce, with in particular a strong challenge to packaging (plastic, over-packaging, etc.). Influencers and opinion leaders encourage responsible consumption backed by brands. We are witnessing the emergence of local brands » replacing international brands (e.g. Michel&Augustin). Paradoxically, a form of fascination with certain luxury brands is sustained despite their non-ecological characteristics.
Disruptive hypothesis: The age of deconsumption
Technology is transforming modes of consumption (virtuality, transhumanism, etc.). Consumers produce only what they need in order to survive (prosumerism, bartering) and radically change their dietary behaviours (veganism, entomophagy, etc.)
We are therefore witnessing a sharp fall in consumption : consumption is now perceived solely as a means of survival. Frugality becomes the norm. Brands tend to disappear and, more broadly, communication practices are called into question . Degrowth becomes widespread and individuals accept a steep decline in their purchasing power. Furthermore, the virtual world compensates for physiological and psychological needs.