General description
A geopolitical, economic and regulatory context of regional retreat
The major world powers, although still influential, see their control diluted in a fragmented international environment. The United States maintains global leadership but must contend with the emergence of autonomous regional blocs, while the European Union refocuses its attention on its territories, weakened by internal crises. The rise of protectionism, exacerbated by the growing scarcity of raw materials and by climate instability, has led to a retreat inwards at regional level.
The climate crisis, having become uncontrollable, imposes a radical transformation of production and consumption systems. Climate regulation, once driven at international level, is increasingly steered locally. Territories develop specific strategies to manage energy and raw material shortages, adjusting their production according to climate conditions and local needs. Local management of resources, notably energy and food, thus becomes essential to the survival and resilience of territories.
In this context, nation states gradually disengage, giving way to more autonomous models of local governance. The European Union still imposes general directives, but their application is left to the discretion of territories. Political decisions, such as adjusting energy consumption or introducing new production technologies, are taken at the level of local councils, elected or selected by lot to represent the interests of communities. Within this framework, territories themselves decide whether they wish to adopt European environmental standards, according to their specific needs and resources, making inter-territorial disparities more pronounced than before.
Territories, in order to guarantee their independence, put in place regulatory mechanisms to favour local resources and impose restrictions on the import of external products. Priority is given to local industry, and territories have their own regulations to control the production and consumption of energy. Local energy infrastructure becomes paramount, with increased use of renewable energy and innovations such as small modular reactors in order to guarantee energy autonomy.
A circular economy that is regionalised and cooperative
In this context of geopolitical fragmentation and local regulation, the circular economy becomes the preferred model for adapting to the growing scarcity of resources. The circular economy is no longer conceived at national or global level but rather regionalised. The model of local circular supply chains is widely adopted: materials are recovered, reused and recycled within the territory, reducing dependence on international supply chains. Exchanges between territories are limited to essential materials, but the majority of needs are covered through short loops, creating a resilient local circular economy.
This regionalised management of the circular economy leads to greater autonomy, but also to disparities from one territory to another depending on local resources and infrastructure.
Local councils play a central role in managing this circular economy. They impose strict rules on local companies in order to ensure sustainable production, encouraging the use of bio-based materials and the integration of green technologies.
Territories become hubs of circular production, where companies must adapt to local requirements. Cooperation between industry, universities and local research centres is encouraged in order to develop technological innovations aimed at maximising the reuse of resources. Research and development projects, often funded by citizen crowdfunding, make it possible to strengthen the industrial autonomy of territories while ensuring production that respects the resources available.
Local companies also face energy restrictions imposed by local councils. In order to meet fluctuating energy needs, manufacturers must reduce their consumption during peak periods and adjust their production according to the resources available. This cooperative model, although demanding, makes it possible to secure supplies while ensuring resilience in the face of climate or energy shocks. Companies now favour recycled or bio-based materials and adapt their production according to local constraints. Mass industrialisation is replaced by qualitative production, focused on the durability of products and on limiting waste.
Towards a regionalisation of consumption and employment
This new economic organisation directly affects citizens and workers. Consumers, now more aware of climate and environmental issues, are encouraged to adopt more responsible behaviours by, for example, taking part in community repair workshops and making greater use of bartering. They get used to a more limited offer owing to local supply constraints, but benefit from greater product quality and traceability thanks notably to the introduction of the digital product passport. This new, better-informed form of consumption favours local manufacturers that incorporate recycled materials and virtuous production processes.
Citizens are also called upon to contribute actively to funding local industrial projects, via crowdfunding platforms. This citizen funding makes it possible to strengthen the link between consumers and producers, but also to involve citizens directly in the economic development of their territory. Consumers thus become full participants in the local circular economy, supporting sustainable projects and investing in committed local companies.
In terms of employment, the return to a traditional model of work marks a break with the trends towards digitalisation and uberization observed in previous decades. Salaried employment, based on stable careers, makes a strong comeback. Local companies once again become hubs of social interaction, strengthening the links between employees and employers.
Manual skills, notably in the fields of recycling, repair and resource management, are given renewed value, not only in the professional sphere but also in the private one.
Local councils support this transformation by offering compensation to employees who choose to adjust their working hours according to energy restrictions or the company's needs. Compensation systems, funded by local authorities, allow workers to maintain a stable income while adapting to local production constraints. Citizens, as employees or consumers, are therefore stakeholders in this model of regionalised circular economy.
Conclusion
This scenario describes a future in which the autonomy of territories, local cooperation and citizen engagement shape a regionalised and sustainable circular economy. This model, although effective in ensuring resilience in the face of climate and economic crises, accentuates disparities between territories and poses challenges in terms of social equality and access to resources.