General description
Climate and geopolitical pressures: an uneven and fragmented ecological transition
Despite strong climate, economic and social pressures, change remains modest and the move towards a circular economy happens slowly and in a fragmented way. Climate crises exacerbate the vulnerabilities of populations and cause irreversible environmental degradation, without however prompting governments to take large-scale action. Climate policies, although present at international level, remain ineffective and fragmented, with priority often given to short-term economic interests.
Geopolitically, the United States continues to assert its global leadership, but is increasingly challenged by regional blocs seeking to extend their influence. For its part, the European Union sees its role weakened owing to internal crises and the rise of protectionism. European reindustrialisation, although necessary in order to meet economic and climate challenges, is held back by political tensions, an ageing population and a lack of long-term investment. Global oil reserves decline drastically, forcing States to adopt protectionist resource management policies, but without any real coordination between countries.
Economically, industrial policies focus mainly on decarbonisation, but efforts remain insufficient to meet the needs of the transition to a circular economy. Large companies continue to dominate the market thanks to their ability to invest in costly technological solutions, while SMEs and social economy players struggle to keep pace owing to their limited access to funding. Initiatives to support the ecological transition exist, but they are often volatile and do not endure. Consequently, large companies are the only ones to benefit from these schemes, creating an imbalance in the industrial fabric.
A circular economy limited to local initiatives
The circular economy progresses but remains marginal and confined to local or sector-specific initiatives. Although many companies are aware of the importance of this transition, most continue to operate within a linear economic model in which the consumption of raw materials and the disposal of waste predominate. Large companies highlight decarbonisation strategies and claim repairable or refurbished products, but this remains insufficient to overturn traditional business models. The circular economy remains confined to niches, notably in sectors such as electronics, where brands offer repairable or refurbished products.
Technologically, progress is mixed. Digital technologies (AI, IoT, blockchain) offer opportunities to optimise resource management and facilitate recycling. But they also generate significant digital pollution that limits their positive effects. Moreover, the spread of these technologies across all industries, notably SMEs, is held back by high implementation costs and a lack of public support. Research into bio-based and biodegradable materials develops in order to find sustainable alternatives to conventional plastics. The share of bioplastics thus rises appreciably but remains marginal given its low economic competitiveness compared with conventional plastic and the scarcity of dedicated recycling channels.
Circular supply chains develop unevenly. Some companies, notably large ones, manage to incorporate circular practices into their sourcing models thanks to their investment capacity, while small companies, faced with economic constraints and high costs, continue to operate on traditional models. Support and regulatory policies, although present, struggle to encourage widespread adoption of the circular economy. The slow pace of putting in place the infrastructure needed for waste management and large-scale recycling also holds back this transition.
Public policies attempt to encourage the recyclability of products, but results are limited by a lack of coordination between the various levels of governance - local, national and European.
A slow transformation of consumption and employment
Consumer behaviour evolves slowly towards more responsible practices, but this transformation is held back by significant economic constraints. Price remains the main purchasing factor and, although some consumers are prepared to invest in more sustainable products, the majority continue to favour the cheapest products, often from linear production. Moreover, in the absence of clear benchmark labels, consumers lack reliable information on the environmental impact of the products they buy.
The second-hand and refurbishment market progresses but remains a niche phenomenon. Refurbished or recycled products are not yet perceived as viable alternatives to new products, owing to the scarcity of supply, traceability problems and a lack of confidence in the quality of these products.
The collaborative consumption model, which includes the sharing or rental of expensive or bulky items, gains ground but remains limited to specific communities, mainly in urban areas.
In terms of employment, the situation remains broadly stable with a slight rise in self-employment. Industrial jobs see no significant increase and continue to represent around 10 to 11% of total employment. Training relating to decarbonisation and digitalisation progresses but remains out of step with companies' real needs, accentuating the skills shortage in certain sectors. In addition, inequalities in the labour market widen between qualified and unqualified workers, the former benefiting from better working conditions and opportunities in companies that succeed in adopting circular or innovative models.
The increased digitalisation of work and the expansion of remote working change social interactions within companies, reinforcing employees' sense of isolation and weakening the social role of the company.
Conclusion
In this trend-based scenario, the changes needed for a large-scale transition to a circular economy are slow to come. Progress remains limited and slow, with an economy still dominated by linear models and mass consumption. The circular economy, although present, is fragmented and struggles to become widespread beyond local or niche initiatives. Consumers, faced with economic constraints, still favour traditional products, while manufacturers adopt circular practices opportunistically, but without fundamentally questioning their business models. The path towards a genuine circular and sustainable economy remains long and strewn with obstacles.